Just the other day, I was meeting with my longtime financial advisor and, as expected, he remains steadfast in the opinion that MLB futures are the safest place to park money in these uncertain times.
He actually recommends a diverse portfolio including college basketball and NFL Draft investments as well, but, today, we are going to keep our focus on baseball.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2025 MLB season]
(Please note the above sentences are intended to be ridiculous. You should not, under any circumstances, take financial advice from myself or anyone you might encounter via links in my stories. Let’s please bet responsibly, never wagering any sum that you cannot afford to simply light on fire.)
I have a well-established fondness for locking up discretionary funds for months in MLB futures, so let’s review several BetMGM opportunities with serious appeal …
Kyle Schwarber, regular season home run leader, +1100
It should not surprise you to learn that Aaron Judge (+260) and Shohei Ohtani (+500) are the favorites to lead the majors in home runs, but the potential payout for Schwarber is so much more appealing. Also, he has something better than a puncher’s chance to dethrone Judge. Schwarber led the N.L. in homers three seasons ago and he’s averaged 44 bombs over the past three years. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in pretty much every key power metric, including average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.
Alex Bregman, over 20.5 home runs (-110)
First of all, Bregman has topped this total in each of the past three seasons and pretty much every projection system likes him to do it again in 2025. Secondly, let’s please note that Bregman is outrageously well-suited to Fenway Park, his new home, where he is actually one of the all-time most productive visiting batters. He’s a pull hitter with an exceedingly Green Monster-friendly swing; he routinely ranks among the MLB leaders in flyball rate (45.3% last season). Bregman is definitely clearing 20 homers in a healthy year. He’s a steal at his current Yahoo ADP as well (82.8).
Michael Toglia, over 24.5 home runs (+100)
OK, one final homer-related opportunity, because it feels so overwhelmingly likely. Toglia enters the season as Colorado’s everyday first baseman, coming off a year in which he launched 25 bombs in just 116 games. He’s an exit velo machine who will obviously do his home-hitting in one of the friendliest possible parks. Toglia is a decent candidate for a 30/10 season in terms of power and speed.
Oneil Cruz, over 20.5 stolen bases (-115)
Cruz is simply one of the toolsiest players we have ever seen and his base-stealing upside is hard to miss. He swiped 22 bags in 23 attempts last year, delivering his first (and certainly not last) 20/20 campaign. He’s been one of the fastest players in MLB from the moment he reached Pittsburgh, so it isn’t too difficult to imagine a 30/30 season in his future. I’ve previously made the case for Cruz as a potential 2025 fantasy difference-maker, which of course means I’m plenty interested in his overs.
Juan Soto, regular season runs scored leader, +650
Ohtani is the current category favorite coming off a near-flawless season in which he played 159 games, scored 134 runs, drove in 130 and invented the 50/50 club. It’s worth noting, however, that manager Dave Roberts anticipates more rest days and fewer plate appearances for Ohtani in the year ahead. It kinda seems like Soto should at least be a co-favorite to lead MLB in run scoring. He crossed the plate 128 times last season, he’ll bat just ahead of Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo this year, and he’s a verifiable on-base machine (career .421).
Manny Machado, regular season RBI leader, +2000
This is yet another stat in which we find Judge and Ohtani as the prohibitive favorites, which is not unreasonable. Let’s just remember that Machado remains an outstanding hitter and consistent run producer at the age of 32 — the man has seven seasons with at least 90 RBI on his resume. He’s expected to bat clean-up for San Diego this year, behind Luis Arráez, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Jackson Merrill. It’s exactly the sort of setup that can yield 125-plus RBI.
If we can assume another healthy season for Machado — which seems safe, because he basically always gives us 150 games — then we can expect him to crush his fantasy ADP (31.6) and park himself on the leaderboard in multiple categories.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win A.L. MVP, +1200
Vlad is a 26-year-old who hits nothing but missiles, heading into his walk year in Toronto and eying a mega-deal. He’s received MVP votes in three different seasons, finishing as high as second back in 2021, the year he challenged for the Triple Crown. If you don’t think he can produce a 120-40-120-.320 season, then you might be new to baseball. He’s another player who only rarely misses games, so the counting stats are always stellar.
Any MVP scenario for Vlad would either involve the Blue Jays making it to the playoffs, or a mid-season trade followed by a Fred McGriff-in-’93-style surge. Both paths seem entirely possible.
Elly De La Cruz to win N.L. MVP, +1800
Yeah, I will concede that this one is asking a lot from both the Cincinnati Reds generally and De La Cruz specifically. We are gonna need the Reds to win a bunch more games than they did last year (77) while Elly simultaneously finds a way to boost his .809 OPS just a bit.
But if Cincinnati challenges for the division flag in 2025 and De La Cruz delivers the 30/70 season of which he is clearly capable … well, that seems like a spicy MVP recipe right there. No one plays the game with more flair, so Elly would surely win a close race via the vibes tiebreaker.
If you’re liking this wager, then you should probably also take Terry Francona as N.L. Manager of the Year at +400.
Tanner Bibee to win A.L. Cy Young, +3500
Bibee is just entering his prime, he has a deep arsenal of high-quality pitches and his team’s bullpen is not in the business of giving up leads. He’s clearly a guy who can deliver 15 wins, 200-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. In the current era, that’s what a Cy Young contender looks like. Cincinnati’s lineup couldn’t touch him in his last spring start, for what it’s worth.
Spencer Strider to win N.L. Cy Young, +1400
Call me crazy, but I’m thinking the guy who is actually the most dominant starter in the National League has a real shot at the Cy Young award. Maybe I’m just galaxy-braining this thing, though. Dunno.
It’s also possible that I’m still under the influence of Monday’s phenomenal spring debut:
The obvious argument against Strider winning this award is that his workload is likely to be light in his first season following elbow surgery. That would really be a huge concern for me if literally anyone else was a lock to deliver a huge innings total. Paul Skenes is the heavy fave for this award, but there’s zero reason for the Pirates to push him beyond 160-170 frames if they are once again a non-contending team.
Even if you aren’t buying Strider as the Cy Young winner, you should consider him at +400 for Comeback Player of the Year.
