The following players are overvalued compared to ADP — not necessarily “busts” as they can still retain value. Go here for sleepers.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte, 2B
Marte now carries a top-30 ADP after coming off a career best season, so proceed with caution. He hasn’t reached double-digit stolen bases since 2019 (when he had 10), and he’s missed an average of 34 games over the last four seasons. Marte was legitimately awesome in 2024, posting a 151 wRC+ that ranked top 10 in baseball. But he owns a career 118 wRC+, and OOPSY projects Marte to come back down to 25 home runs in 2025 (over an optimistic 147 games played).
Marte is due for regression at the plate, and he doesn’t run much. His Yahoo ADP was outside 100 in 2024, and he’ll now be 31 years old. Fade Marte’s ADP.
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
The A’s aren’t loaded with players with high ADPs, and the change in venues will be favorable for their hitters. Mason Miller’s new ADP is risky given his injury history, but he also might be the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now (and he easily led all relievers in K-BB% last season). Enter Severino, who’s the Athletics’ new ace and highest drafted SP. He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home last season but a 5.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP when not in the extremely pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
Severino now will be pitching in a smaller park and in warmer weather with the move to Sacramento (where the A’s will share parks with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliates). There are better late-round fliers for those searching for SP help in deeper leagues.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF
Acuña is set to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season while recovering from his second ACL surgery. He’s reportedly looked great at the plate during Atlanta’s camp, but fantasy managers should be concerned about Acuña openly stating he plans on “taking it easy” on the base paths after returning. Atlanta is trying to avoid Acuña having to deal with lingering discomfort that followed him throughout the 2022 season following his first ACL procedure, when he posted a 115 wRC+. Acuña was also quietly pedestrian over 50 games at the plate (105 wRC+) before suffering his knee injury last season.
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Most projection systems remain extremely bullish, calling for 35+ steals over 120ish games. Other systems manually changed after Acuña’s quote painted a more pessimistic outcome.
Acuña is one season removed from going 40/70, so there’s obvious upside, but there’s real risk of him running significantly less in 2025. He’s a fade as a borderline top-30 pick in Yahoo drafts.
Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, SP
Eflin has benefitted greatly from pitching at Tropicana Field over the last two years, including posting a 1.94 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP there last season. He recorded a 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP outside of pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay. Tropicana Field has increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, while Oriole Park has decreased Ks by 8% over that span. Baltimore is also moving in its left-field fences in 2025, so Eflin will have a full season in a tougher environment.
Gunnar Henderson also carries some risk given his high ADP (7.7), modest SB projections, second half drop in production and entering the season with an intercostal injury.
Boston Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, RP
Hendriks has struggled this spring while competing to be Boston’s closer. Aroldis Chapman has had control issues, but he’s striking batters out and was a top 10 reliever after the All-Star break last season. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock are also capable options of securing the Red Sox’s closer’s role. Hendriks’ last productive season was back in 2022, and his previous velocity looks unlikely to return.
Chicago Cubs: Seiya Suzuki, OF
Suzuki owns a legit 129 wRC+ over three years in the majors, but he’s also missed an average of 35 games each season. He’ll turn 31 years old this summer, and Suzuki’s batting average is at risk of falling in 2025. His .282 BA last year came with a .255 expected BA, which was one of the biggest differences in MLB. Suzuki’s .370 BABIP was the highest in baseball, and it also would’ve led the league in 2022 and 2023, which is especially surprising for a right-handed corner outfielder who usually puts balls in the air.
Suzuki is being drafted next to Luis Robert Jr. in Yahoo leagues, but the latter’s projections are dramatically better.
Cincinnati Reds: Alexis Díaz, RP
Díaz’s 4.48 SIERA ranked 156th out of 169 qualified relievers last season. He pitches in one of baseball’s most extreme hitter’s parks in Cincinnati, where Díaz recorded a 4.61 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP last year. Díaz’s K% dropped from 31% over 2022-23 down to 22.7% last season, and his abnormally low BABIP (.250) and HR/FB% (8.6) are especially likely to regress while pitching in Great American Smallpark. There are no obvious replacements for the closer’s role, but the Reds signed Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow during the offseason, when Emilio Pagán also lost 30 pounds, so there are alternatives.
Cleveland Guardians: Steven Kwan, OF
Kwan can be a batting average help, but his ADP is too high for an outfielder projected to go 8/17 with few RBI. Kwan’s Hard-Hit% and Bat Speed were both in the bottom one percentile last season, and his average exit velocity was in the bottom 10th. Kwan has a low fantasy ceiling, yet he’s being drafted in between Dylan Crews and Pete Crow-Armstrong in Yahoo leagues; two players with far more fantasy upside. Moreover, Jasson Domínguez shouldn’t be going after Kwan in fantasy drafts.
Colorado Rockies: Brenton Doyle, OF
Doyle will continue to benefit from hitting in Coors Field and possibly leadoff, but he carries some risk given his massive jump in ADP. Doyle is now a top 65 pick in NFBC leagues, and he’s going next to Lawrence Butler in Yahoo drafts. Doyle is one season removed from batting .203 (with a 45 wRC+!), and he hit just .211/.273/.364 over 280 ABs on the road last season. Doyle hit .167/.203/.212 (.415 OPS) in September, even with the benefit of Coors Field.
The bags and homers are very nice, but fade Doyle’s new ADP.
Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B
A depleted White Sox roster gives few options here, and it also hurts Vaughn’s counting stats. He managed just 55 runs scored and 70 RBI over 619 plate appearances last season. Vaughn is a fine floor pick if you need to fill first base, but he’s never reached 70 runs scored or surpassed 80 RBI or 21 homers during his career. Vaughn has three career stolen bases. Chicago’s lineup could become even uglier if/when Luis Robert Jr. gets traded. The White Sox are projected to once again score the fewest runs in baseball in 2025.
Detroit Tigers: Jason Foley, RP
Foley enters the favorite to close in Detroit after racking up 28 saves last season, but he’s unlikely to keep the job. Foley throws hard, but it’s yet to translate into missing bats; his 18.4 K% ranked 151st out of 169 qualified relievers last year. His 4.09 SIERA ranked 138th. Foley appeared during just one of Detroit’s seven postseason games, and the Tigers handed the superior Tommy Kahnle a $7.75 million contract during the offseason. Fade Foley at draft tables.
Houston Astros: José Altuve, 2B
Altuve is a rock-solid fantasy player, but a borderline third-round pick is too early. Altuve reached his most plate appearances (682) last year since 2016, yet it still resulted in relatively modest counting stats. The compiling helped his fantasy line, but Altuve showed signs of decline at the plate, which is more concerning entering his age-35 season. Altuve will also be learning a new position with his move to left field. THE BAT X projects Altuve to go .258-79-17-67-15, which would be a reach as a top 40 pick in Yahoo drafts.
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Estévez, RP
Estévez has performed much better since leaving Coors Field, and he enters the season the favorite to close in Kansas City after signing with the Royals during the offseason. But he saw his K% drop last season, when his .229 BABIP was one of the lowest among all relievers. Estévez’s hit rate could massively regress now that he’s pitching in one of baseball’s most favorable hitter’s parks. Kauffman Stadium boosts batting average and walks while also decreasing strikeouts more than any other park. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg emerged as an elite RP last season, so the Royals have an alternative just waiting for the opportunity.
Los Angeles Angels: Logan O’Hoppe, C
O’Hoppe hit just .196/.266/.312 with a 64 wRC+ after the All-Star break last season, when his K% also skyrocketed to 38.2%. Injuries may have contributed, but O’Hoppe is now in danger of losing at-bats after the Angels signed Travis d’Arnaud during the offseason. D’Arnaud’s 105 wRC+ ranks 11th among all qualified catchers since 2022. O’Hoppe’s .244 BA came with a .318 BABIP that was 68 points higher than his 2023 hit rate. O’Hoppe is at risk of platooning far more in 2025, yet he’s being drafted next to J.T. Realmuto.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Freddie Freeman, 1B
Freeman absolutely could be a nice bounce-back candidate after a down 2024, but there’s also risk while remaining a top 20 pick in Yahoo leagues. The Dodgers will reportedly manage his ankle over the first half of the season after Freeman underwent offseason surgery. It could also lead to fewer stolen base attempts, especially considering his already notable declining speed. Freeman’s Bat Speed was in the 20th percentile last year, and he’ll turn 36 years old this season. Freeman has a nice floor as a BA help and hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup, but he hasn’t reached 30 homers since joining Los Angeles, and his SBs are at risk. Fade Freeman as a top 20 pick.
Miami Marlins: Calvin Faucher, RP
Faucher’s K rate spiked last season, but he owns a career 4.65 ERA as he enters 2025 the leading candidate to close in Miami. THE BAT projects Faucher to post a 4.35 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Jesús Tinoco recorded a 2.03 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP after joining the Marlins last season, while Anthony Bender has shown flashes of dominance while healthy, so Miami has alternatives.
Marlins relievers have all struggled this spring with no one emerging as the clear answer to close, but Faucher doesn’t look like the long-term solution. Miami is projected to win a lowly 62 games, so save opportunities will be scarce as well.
Milwaukee Brewers: Brice Turang, 2B
Turang was one of fantasy’s biggest breakouts last year, but he offers little power and should regress in steals. Turang hit just .220/.277/.287 with a 58 wRC+ after the All-Star break last season. His Bat Speed and Barrel% both finished in the bottom 3% of MLB. Turang owns a career 76 wRC+ (that would’ve ranked third worst among 129 qualified hitters last year), so he’s destined to hit toward the bottom of Milwaukee’s lineup.
Turang’s projections are nearly identical to Victor Robles, who goes 100 picks later in Yahoo drafts.
Trevor Megill is also a fantasy fade, as his K-BB% sunk all the way down to 10.0% while his FIP jumped to 4.51 after the All-Star break last season. The Brewers are loaded with potential ninth-inning replacements, highlighted by (but not limited to) future long-term closer, Craig Yoho.
Minnesota Twins: Royce Lewis, 3B
Lewis clearly has upside after posting a 154 wRC+ just one season ago, but the piling up of injuries have become hard to ignore. Lewis has missed an average of 92 games over the last two seasons thanks to a litany of health issues, and he also hit just .207 with a .620 OPS over his final 56 games last year. Lewis didn’t attempt a single stolen base during 2024. He’s plenty capable of bouncing back at the plate, but there are too many durability questions for Lewis to be worth a top 90 pick in Yahoo leagues.
New York Mets: Mark Vientos, 3B
Vientos was a real nice power surprise last season, when he popped 27 homers over just 413 at-bats. But his K% jumped all the way to 33.7% in the second half after pitchers saw him more, and that K% would have ranked behind only Zack Gelof (who hit .211) over the full season. Vientos had the 12th-biggest negative difference in wOBA and xwOBA, and he hits in one of baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s parks. THE BAT X projects Vientos to hit .232 this season, yet he’s somehow being drafted ahead of Junior Caminero in Yahoo leagues.
New York Yankees: Max Fried, SP
Fried is a solid pitcher who’s being drafted like a borderline elite one despite now moving to Yankee Stadium. The overall Park Factors appear neutral when comparing Atlanta and New York, but some differences could affect Fried; Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs an AL-high 19% over the last three seasons. Moreover, Yankee Stadium has increased walks an MLB-high 10%, and Fried will be leaving a park in Atlanta that helped bump strikeouts by 9% (the third-most in MLB).
Fried’s 15.3 K-BB% ranked 32nd among 58 qualified starters last season, sandwiched between MacKenzie Gore and Brady Singer. His CSW was in between Charlie Morton and Kutter Crawford. Fried had as many strikeouts as Mitch Keller and fewer Ks than Tyler Glasnow, who pitched 40 fewer innings.
The 31-year-old Fried signed a massive offseason contract to join New York, and fantasy managers are also paying up while drafting him as a near top 20 starter.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez, SP
Sánchez was a huge win for fantasy managers last year, but his ADP has now jumped too high given his modest K rate. Sánchez’s 20.3 K% ranked 45th among 57 qualified starters last season, and his extreme groundball rate will continue to hurt his WHIP. Sánchez is a fine pitcher, but he shouldn’t be going ahead of Robbie Ray and Jared Jones in NFBC leagues, and Nick Pivetta shouldn’t be available later than him in Yahoo leagues.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds, OF
Reynolds is a safe floor play, but you’re passing on players with far more upside at his ADP. Reynolds’ 24 homers, 73 runs scored and 10 stolen bases came via a career-high 692 plate appearances (top 15 in the league) last season. Being able to stay healthy is obviously a plus, but just realize there’s been a compounding component to Reynold’s fantasy value. The Pirates should remain one of the lowest scoring teams in 2025, so give me Christian Yelich straight up over Reynolds, who goes 30 picks earlier in Yahoo drafts.
San Diego Padres: Robert Suárez, RP
Suárez’s K-BB% dropped to 13.0% in August last season and then down to 5.9% in September, when he allowed eight earned runs over 12.0 innings. Suárez enters 2025 as San Diego’s closer, but Jeremiah Estrada was an elite reliever last year, and the Padres added Jason Adam during the offseason. Adam’s 2.12 ERA over the last three seasons ranks sixth-best among 185 relievers, and he has some closing experience. Alarmingly, Suárez’s CSW (23.9%) ranked 163rd out of 169 qualified relievers last season, while Adam’s 32.3% ranked 12th. Suárez’s K% (22.9) ranked outside the top 100 RPs last year, and he has legit arms behind him on San Diego’s depth chart, so don’t expect another 30+ saves.
San Francisco Giants: Willy Adames, SS
Adames set career highs in homers (32), runs scored (93), RBI (112) and stolen bases (21) during his contract year last season. Hitting mostly cleanup helped Adames’ run production, but his RBI total came thanks to historic opportunity. Adames saw the most plate appearances (224) with runners in scoring position last season since 2012. He tied Ken Griffey Jr. with the most three-run homers in a season in MLB history (and later added a grand slam). Moreover, Adames posted a 1.073 OPS with runners in scoring position but just a .694 OPS with the bases empty.
Adames also will be hitting in a different lineup and in a much more favorable pitcher’s park after signing in San Francisco during the offseason. Milwaukee has increased HR for RHB by 11% over the last three seasons, whereas San Francisco has decreased them by 21%. Graphics may show all of Adames’ 150 career home runs theoretically leaving Oracle Park, but the main issue in San Francisco is air density, not park dimensions. Those fly balls simply won’t travel as far in the Bay Area. The Giants haven’t had a 30-homer hitter since 2004 for a reason; every other team has at least one since 2019.
Adames also never had more than eight steals in a season before his contract year, and he now joins a San Francisco organization that was the least likely to attempt a stolen base last season (50 SBA+).
Seattle Mariners: Randy Arozarena, OF
Arozarena would normally qualify as a bounce-back target coming off a down season, but he landed in an even more extreme pitcher’s park after leaving Tampa Bay last year. T-Mobile Park in Seattle played more extreme toward pitchers than Coors Field did hitters last season. For numerous reasons, T-Mobile Park limits walks and has increased strikeouts an MLB-high 15% over the last three seasons. No park has damaged batting average more over that span. Arozarena’s .219 batting average last year came with the same .219 expected BA, which was in the bottom 10% of the league.
Arozarena is now on the wrong side of 30 and has seen declining Sprint Speed each of the last four seasons. The Mariners (101 SBA+) are a less aggressive running team than the Rays (137 SBA+), and Arozarena recorded just four steals (with only five homers) over 54 games after joining Seattle last year. He shouldn’t be going multiple rounds before Pete Crow-Armstrong in Yahoo leagues.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Helsley, RP
Helsley was great in 2024 while posting a 2.04 ERA, but he ran hot closing out games. Helsley’s 49 saves led MLB and set a franchise record; he somehow did so with the Cardinals winning just 83 games, as Helsley posted a save during an unsustainable 59% of St. Louis’ wins. The rebuilding Cardinals are projected to win even fewer games (79) in 2025, and Helsley had never recorded 20 saves or reached 65 innings in the majors before last year. He has a long injury history and averaged 99.6 mph with his fastball last season (fifth-highest among relievers).
Moreover, Helsley’s K% saw a significant drop from his previous two seasons, and his 3.08 SIERA ranked a more modest 35th among relief pitchers. Helsley is also an upcoming free agent who’s a candidate to be traded midseason. Don’t let last season’s gaudy save total influence you into drafting Helsley as a top five fantasy closer in 2025.
Tampa Bay Rays: Pete Fairbanks, RP
Fairbank’s K% plummeted from 37.0% in 2023 down to a career-low 23.8% last season. His SIERA has jumped from 1.09 in 2022 to 2.82 in 2023 to 3.75 last season, when his velocity saw a noticeable dip. Fairbank’s has constantly dealt with different injuries, as last season’s 45.1 innings matched a career high. Fairbanks has barely appeared in games so far this spring, and he remains a trade candidate midseason. The Rays will be moving from a pitcher’s paradise to a park with Yankee Stadium’s exact dimensions but warmer. Moreover, Tampa Bay has multiple alternatives in its bullpen, including Edwin Uceta and Mason Montgomery. Fairbanks is mistakenly being drafted ahead of Kenley Jansen, David Bednar and Jordan Romano in Yahoo leagues.
Texas Rangers: Marcus Semien, 2B
Semien remains a fine compiler, but it took 718 plate appearances for him to record 23 homers and eight steals last season. Semien deserves credit for surpassing 700 PAs six straight seasons (not counting the shortened 2020), but his Bat Speed fell to the 10th percentile as a 33-year-old, and his 99 wRC+ ranked outside the top 100 qualified hitters. Semien will likely continue to run less now that he’s 34 years old, and manager Bruce Bochy plans on resting him more in 2025, yet he remains a top 70 pick in Yahoo leagues.
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer, OF
Springer could be a target to bounce back at a lower ADP coming off a down year, but there are more concerns than just last season’s performance. Springer hit mostly leadoff last season, but he’s likely to bat toward the bottom half of Toronto’s lineup in 2025. It’s possible that leads to Springer hitting cleanup, but he just posted a .660 OPS (91 wRC+) with sinking peripherals (8.7 BB%, 21.6 K%) in the second half last year. Moreover, he’s been a disaster on defense over the last two seasons, so there’s even potential that fast-rising prospect Alan Roden eventually ends up taking Springer’s job.
