Ever since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential campaign three weeks ago, polls and campaign finance data have shown how the race has changed. She has come from behind to build a small lead over former President Donald Trump in national polls and in several swing states, and she raised far more money than he did last month.
Now, new voter registration data in two swing states adds to the evidence that Harris’ candidacy has energized potential Democratic voters.
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For nearly the entire year, more people had been registering as Republicans than as Democrats when signing up to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two battleground states that use party registration and that release this data regularly.
There was a big spike in GOP registrations in both states the week of July 14, during the Republican National Convention, which came days after Trump survived an assassination attempt. In Pennsylvania, more voters registered as Republicans than in any single week since 2020.
But the following Sunday, President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. In the week that followed, Democratic registrations surged. For the first time this year, weekly Democratic registrations outnumbered Republican registrations in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, it was the largest Democratic margin in new registrations since late 2023.
Republican registrations in the two states remained elevated, perhaps reflecting continued goodwill toward Trump. But the Democratic gains erased that advantage.
In both states, the Democratic margin has since faded, though not completely.
It’s a small data point — a few thousand voters for each party each week. The views of newly registered voters also do not necessarily reflect the preferences of the electorate at large. And a significant number of new voters in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania did not register with a party, so their votes in November may be more difficult to predict.
But there are some positive signs for Democrats even among unaffiliated voters. In North Carolina, registrations for young and female voters who didn’t sign up with a party jumped in the week after Biden’s announcement. (In polls of swing states, Harris has a significant advantage among women and voters younger than 30.)
For much of this year in North Carolina, women had made up roughly 50% of new unaffiliated registrants. That share jumped to 55% in the week immediately after Biden dropped out. The proportion of registrants younger than 30 rose to 48% that week, up from about 43% in the weeks before.
First-time registrants are typically younger and lean left, which means Democrats have historically enjoyed the lead in new voter registration. But since 2020, Republicans have performed unusually well in registrations across the country, according to data from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor.
The share of new voters signing up with the Democratic Party has declined in the past few years in other states, like Florida. And even in states where Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans in new registrations, such as New York and Maryland, the percentage of voters registering as Democrats has been falling.
The Democratic gains in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may endure, or they may not last. But they are a bright spot for a party that has seen its success with new voters slipping away.
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