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It is snack time in the packaged food industry. Confectionery giant Mars’ $36bn swoop on Pringles maker Kellanova could put dealmaking back on the table for other food and drink multinationals.
Privately held Mars, home of Snickers and Skittles, will pay $83.50 a share in cash for the maker of Cheez-it and Eggo waffles. The price represents a 42 per cent premium over Kellanova’s undisturbed three month average.
With few big US snacks groups left, a deal was never going to come cheap. Including Kellanova, there are just seven companies in the US packaged food sector with market values of over $20bn.
Mars is paying the equivalent of 16 times EV to forward ebitda for Kellanova. The median ratio for recent deals in the sector was around 15 times, according to JPMorgan. And the deal looks even pricier considering the difficult outlook for snacking — particularly the less healthy varieties that are in Kellanova’s portfolio.
Salty snacks have been the fastest-growing category in the packaged food sector over the past 14 years, with a compound annual growth rate of around 5.8 per cent between 2010 and 2023, according to Citi.
But that growth has slowed sharply this year. Inflation-wary consumers — particularly lower-income ones — are cutting back. At the same time, the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound is reshaping America’s waistlines. In a study by Morgan Stanley earlier this year, about two-thirds of GLP-1 drug users surveyed said they have cut back on snacking by over 50 per cent. Half of those surveyed also said they have cut back on sweets by more than 75 per cent or have stopped scoffing them altogether.
The strain is starting to show. Kellanova’s organic net sales were up 5 per cent in the first six months of the year. But that was largely driven by price increases. That strategy isn’t sustainable: consumers will buy less or choose private label brands.
Mars, as a private company with more than $50bn in sales, opted not to provide cost savings targets to justify its deal, but overlap between the two looks limited. Mars is clearly prepared to pay up to diversify away from its chocolate-heavy snack portfolio. Kellanova, which makes about half its $13bn annual sales from savoury chips and crackers, would do that. Still, $36bn is a big mouthful for what looks like a dubious defensive move.
