EXPECT NOVEMBER LOCAL ELECTIONS TO BE MORE DYNAMIC
The local elections that are scheduled for late November are likely to be more dynamic, with more parties able to field alternative candidates.
The most significant impact will be in the Jakarta gubernatorial election, which will no longer be a one-horse race with the candidate from Prabowo’s coalition running unopposed. Previously no parties had enough votes to put forth a challenger.
But now, another candidate might emerge from PDIP, Jokowi’s former-party-turned-rival. Whoever wins in Jakarta might use the governorship as a launchpad for a future presidential bid.
However, there is no guarantee that the increased competitiveness will be matched by fairness, particularly outside Jakarta. Prabowo has learned from Jokowi how to mobilise state resources to shift electoral dynamics in his favour, by exploiting legal yet ethically dubious tactics. Meanwhile, following the government’s decision to postpone many local elections originally set for 2022 and 2023, Jokowi strategically appointed allies as “acting regional heads” in several regions. As of July this year, 10 of these government appointees were preparing to stand in the November elections, each benefitting from incumbency and owing their positions to Jokowi.
Overall, the mass protests defending the Constitutional Court’s rulings have inadvertently assisted Prabowo in his first clash with Jokowi. This does not imply that civil society was co-opted, but rather that, as often seen in Indonesia, public pressure tends to be more effective when it coincides with elite interests. Jokowi may still have some tricks up his sleeves for the next showdown.
Nava Nuraniyah is a former analyst with the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict Jakarta and presently completing a PhD at the Australian National University. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s blog, Interpreter.
