This edition of State of the Union focuses on the fallout of regional elections in Germany, the latest spat between Hungary and the EU and Mongolia’s refusal to arrest Vladimir Putin.
If you love following the ups and downs of the conflicts between the European Union and Hungary, you had a field day this week.
The anti-immigrant government in Budapest ignored a deadline to pay a €200 million fine imposed by the European Court of Justice.
The judges had found that Hungary committed an “unprecedented and exceptionally serious breach of EU law” when it put long-standing restrictions on the right to asylum.
The dispute dates back to 2020 when the Hungarian authorities were heavily criticized for keeping asylum seekers in so-called transit zones under detention-like conditions.
Now the European Commission has put in motion a procedure to collect the €200 million fine.
“We have the financial regulation in place, there is no wiggle room here. We have to follow the applicable procedures,” EU Commission spokesman Balazs Ujvari said. “We sent a second request in line with the procedure. This gives Hungary 15 calendar days to make the payment concerned.”
We’ll see what happens in two weeks.
Far-right makes gains in Germany
Yet, the shocker of the week was not Hungary’s refusal to pay its fine, but the outcome of regional elections in east Germany.
For the first time since World War II, a hard right and fascist party emerged as the strongest force in a state election.
A shocker, but not a surprise.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz saw it coming.
Even before election day, he announced a tougher immigration policy in a vain attempt to stem his Social Democratic Party’s bleeding at the polls.
Germany has started deporting Afghan nationals with criminal records to their home country.
Now, Scholz’s colleague south of the border in Austria announced direct deportations to Afghanistan and Syria as well.
On that, Vienna would be in close cooperation with Berlin.
ADVERTISEMENT“Repatriations to Afghanistan and Syria are no longer taboo but are now part of how we can actually get to grips with the issue of illegal migration and criminals,” Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer said.
“This means that a whole lot of measures are needed here, and Austria has made a significant contribution.”
‘They thrive on instability’
We spoke with Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, on the topic.
Euronews: So, Olaf Scholz’s tougher stance on immigration didn’t help him in the election. Is there a risk that his government will abandon other policy positions, like on Ukraine, to please the populist crowds?
ADVERTISEMENTLoss: There’s certainly a risk. I think the federal government working with the democratic opposition, the Christian Conservative Union, are trying to figure out a way to respond to this electoral victory of the AfD [Alternative for Germany] and BSW [The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance] in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday. And migration policy seems to be certainly one of those areas that they have identified as needing to work on. But less emphasis on questions like Ukraine, the energy transformation, the somewhat contentious issues.
Euronews: So, the results in East Germany were more of symbolic nature than they were of substance? I mean, we’re talking about two small states with a combined population of seven per cent of the German total – is it still a national bellwether?
Loss: It’s certainly important to keep things in perspective. You’re right to point out that Saxony and Thuringia are not the largest states of the 16 in Germany. But it is the first time that a right-wing extremist party has 30%, a third of seats in any state parliament or the federal parliament in Germany since 1949, since the founding of the Federal Republic. And so it is to some extent a watershed moment that gives the AfD and the BSW strong powers, formally and informally, to influence policy. But more importantly, I think their success means that other parties have to respond to them, have to respond to their initiatives, to their rhetoric. And AfD and BSW have little interest in stability and order. They thrive on instability.
Euronews: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called the results “bitter”, urging the other parties to keep the hard right from power which would force them into ideologically garbled coalitions. Can this be a successful way forward?
ADVERTISEMENTLoss: It seems to be that this is a way forward, regardless of whether German policymakers like it or not. The political spectrum is becoming more fragmented. The far right, the far left are political forces to be reckoned with. And that means that the centrist political parties, those with a strong Democratic commitment, have to find new ways to cooperate effectively and not only to advance important policy issues, but also to signal to voters that democratic governance can deliver results.
Euronews: At this point, it is hard to see how Scholz can politically survive federal elections a year from now, even if he has proven, time and again, that he has political stamina and cannot be underestimated. Your thoughts?
Loss: The questions that are circulating in Berlin certainly are around his political survival, which should be counted out this time. But there are certainly questions that are coming up. The SPD, Olaf Scholz’s own party, is trying to keep quiet at this time, because there’s another state election in Brandenburg in two and a half weeks. But afterwards, if the results for the SPD are as disastrous as in Saxony and Thuringia, I’m having a hard time believing that Olaf Scholz is still as comfortable in his leadership seat as he is now.
Putin goes to Mongolia
This week, one country, rarely in the news, Mongolia, made headlines … for not arresting Vladimir Putin.
ADVERTISEMENTPutin’s visit to the East Asian neighbour was his first trip to a state party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Nearly 18 months ago, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes in connection with Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
Members of the Court are treaty-bound to detain suspects – something Mongolia chose not to do.
Instead, the Russian president was greeted in the capital Ulaanbaatar by an honour guard dressed in uniforms styled on those of 13th-century ruler Genghis Khan.
ADVERTISEMENTUkraine and the EU have called on Mongolia to fulfil its obligations and place Putin under arrest – without success.
