Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged Muslims to stand by Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia “with their resources and help,” but analysts say it’s unlikely that Iran will retaliate directly on Israel for the airstrike that killed its prime regional ally, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and his lieutenants.
Analysts say that Iran will continue to depend on its regional proxies to fight Israel because it wants to avert a direct Israeli hit on the country.
Ahron Bregman, Middle East security professor at King’s College London, told VOA that Israel has “sent a very clear message” to Iran with its Sunday attack on its other proxy, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, even as it continued to bombard Lebanon.
He said the distance between Israel and Yemen is not dissimilar to that of Iran, giving a strong warning to Tehran.
“It’s a big force because you need airplanes to refuel the attacking airplanes. You have to send aircraft to rescue. It’s a big operation. The Israelis sent a message to Iran. Look, what we did yesterday to Yemen, we can do it to you. We can hit your oil refineries and even attack your nuclear facilities,” said Bregman.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “the fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront.” The statement was taken to mean that Hezbollah is responsible for avenging the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Sanam Vakil, the director for the Middle East program at London’s Chatham House think tank, told The New York Times that Iran is “completely checkmated by Israel at this moment.” Vakil added, “Khamenei’s statement is indicative of the gravity of the moment and the caution; he is not publicly committing to anything that he can’t deliver.”
Ali Vaez, Iran Project director with the International Crisis Group, quoted by Saudi Arabia’s Arab News said, “Iran is going to stand behind, not with, Hezbollah. Tehran’s forward defense strategy has always been based on projecting power beyond its borders and deterring, not inviting, strikes against its own territory.”
Nicholas Heras, of the Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told VOA that Khamenei has misjudged Israel’s military aims, including “the strong weakening, if not destruction of Hezbollah, the repopulation of northern Israel and the decoupling of Lebanon from Gaza.”
“The Iranians, they’ve underestimated Israel. And in order for Iran’s strategy of using so-called proxies to create a ring of fire around Israel it requires the Israelis to be deterred. The Israelis are doing the opposite. And so, if Iran can’t reestablish deterrence, a major part of its strategic doctrine in the Middle East disappears.” he said.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s deputy and now acting leader, Naim Kassem, has vowed to carry on the fight with Israel, despite the killing of the militia’s top commanders. He said Hezbollah members are ready to fight and defend Lebanon against a possible ground offensive by Israel.
