Iran’s brazen missile attack on Israel has heightened tensions across the Middle East, with some analysts predicting a powerful Israeli response.
What is less certain is whether this will be a one-off exchange or ignite a series of tit-for-tat strikes that could engulf the entire Middle East in conflict.
“It could go either way,” said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “At every exchange, the actors – Iran and Israel – have options to escalate or de-escalate. There is no predetermined path that they must choose.”
James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, said Iran’s military capabilities are more limited than Israel’s.
“At the end of the day, military strength can be decisive,” Jeffrey, who served as a special envoy for Syria engagement, told VOA.
In a statement released Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it crried out the attack in retaliation for the Israeli killings of three key figures: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and an Iranian commander.
Involving nearly 200 ballistic missiles, this was Iran’s second and largest direct attack on Israel from its own territory. In April, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic base in Syria.
But unlike its measured response in April, Israel is expected to respond more forcefully to the latest strike. In a video statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iranian leaders made a “big mistake” and warned that they will “pay for it.”
Why now?
Prior to the latest attack, Iran’s muted response to a series of Israeli strikes on Iranian officials and proxies in recent months had raised doubts about Tehran’s willingness to confront a stronger adversary.
That may be so, but Iranian officials could not sit back and watch one of their key allies, Hezbollah, decapitated by Israel, Shaikh said.
“They need(ed) to push back both to protect Lebanese Hezbollah and also to show to their other proxy groups and allies across the region that they will defend their interests,” Shaikh said in an interview with VOA.
The Iranian strike follows Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon on Monday, after weeks of airstrikes that have killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and crippled Hezbollah’s leadership.
Israel has described the operation as “limited, localized and targeted,” aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border area and eliminating its military infrastructure.
Following Iran’s attack in April, the Biden administration reportedly persuaded Israel to respond with restraint. Whether a similar diplomatic effort will be mounted or is desired remains uncertain.
The stakes appear higher this time. President Joe Biden said he directed the U.S. military to help Israel shoot down the Iranian missiles, adding, “Make no mistake: the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel.”
Jeffrey, the former envoy, said that following the April attack, the understanding between Israel, the U.S. and Iran was: “This is the last time, Bubba. If you do this again, there will be a serious retaliation.”
The question now is how far each side will test the limit of the other’s tolerance.
Shaikh, the CSIS analyst, warned that the longer the conflict drags on, the more political pressure each side will face to “engage with more firepower, and that’s a concern.”
Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the attack gives Netanyahu “an opportunity to deal really quite a big blow to Iran.”
“Whether he will be restrained by the United States or not, we just don’t know,” Landis said in an interview with VOA.
