So often September feels like the glorified preseason for the NFL. We need October football to cleanse our palate, to feel good again.
Baltimore and Cincinnati heeded that call Sunday. Jacksonville and Indianapolis did, too.
The Ravens and Bengals deserve the lead item, though. Contending teams, big-name quarterbacks. The Ravens escaped with a 41-38 overtime victory, in a game that featured 962 yards of offense and 53 first downs. Almost every plausible fantasy angle came home.
Lamar Jackson was marvelous leading the Baltimore offense, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He added 55 more yards on the ground. There were occasional errors — two fumbles (one lost) and a safety, though he only absorbed one sack. But the highlights from Jackson, the splash plays, more than make up for the infrequent mistakes. I can’t imagine how the Commanders will contain him next week (now there’s a delightful matchup, Washington at Baltimore).
Baltimore’s passing tree can be a tricky solve some weeks, but Jackson focused on his receivers, steering 20 targets to Zay Flowers (7-111-0, 12 targets) and Rashod Bateman (4-58-1, eight targets). The tight end work was split three ways, with Isaiah Likely catching two short touchdowns, Charlie Kolar vulturing 3-64-1 on every waiver wire in America and Mark Andrews eventually joining the party, four grabs for 55 yards. Given that Andrews had two targets and zero catches over the two previous weeks, I suppose this is progress.
For the most part, the Bengals did an excellent job on Derrick Henry, but two plays saved his day — a short touchdown run in the first half and a 51-yard gallop in overtime, the last scrimmage play of the game. That’s the joy of Henry — it can feel like he’s doing nothing, and he still cobbles together 16.10 fantasy points. Surprisingly, Justice Hill was targeted just twice.
Jackson preferring his wideouts was reflected by Joe Burrow, and then some; Burrow sent 26-of-39 targets to Ja’Marr Chase (10-193-2) and Tee Higgins (9-83-2). Chase could legitimately be the No. 1 overall pick if you redrafted tomorrow, especially when you consider the leaky Cincinnati defense on the other side. Higgins looks completely healthy again after missing the first two games of the year.
The Bengals already had a narrow usage tree, and it might get narrower moving forward. Chase Brown was more effective than Zack Moss on Sunday, and Moss eventually left the game with a nasty looking ankle injury. Brown picked up a touchdown catch and a 2-point conversion, moving into the top 10 of running back scoring when the 1 p.m. ET window closed. The Giants present a reasonable matchup next week.
Burrow obviously didn’t look sharp in the season-opening loss to New England, but he’s chucked 12 touchdown passes in the four games since. Comically, the Bengals have lost three of those games, allowing 26, 38, 24 and 41 points over that stretch.
Maybe Cincinnati is the best fantasy carnival in the league right now. But the Colts are starting to give that carnival vibe, too.
The wonderful Joe Flacco ripped 359 yards and three touchdowns at Jacksonville, but his defense gave it all away, fixing Trevor Lawrence in one magical three hours (371 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception). The Colts know developing Anthony Richardson is the season priority, but fantasy managers might be pining for more Flacco, especially given how he clicked with the receivers here. Lawrence hit Brian Thomas Jr. (5-122-1) for an 85-yard touchdown, but it’s criminal that Thomas still hasn’t seen 10 targets in any game. Use your best players, guys.
Tank Bigsby is starting to look like Jacksonville’s best running back. He rumbled for 101 rushing yards and two scores on 13 carries, including a 65-yard romp. Travis Etienne Jr. was held to 6-17-0 on the ground, though he was useful in the passing game (6-43-0). Bigsby looked lost as a rookie, but he’s one of the most improved players in the league right now. It’s time to start him proactively in medium and deeper fantasy formats. He’s rostered in just 22% of leagues.
Jacksonville heads to London for two weeks, taking on the Bears and Patriots. Flacco or Richardson will draw Tennessee in Week 6.
Other booms
Bears starting to hit their stride
The Bears controlled their game against Carolina immediately, so volume was going to be tricky for the passing options. But DJ Moore still came through on his revenge game against Carolina, posting a 5-105-2 line against his former club. There’s talent behind Moore on the Chicago passing tree, but we all know who the alpha is.
Say this for D’Andre Swift, the Bears remain committed to him. Although he couldn’t get to four yards a carry against Carolina, he collected 23 touches for the second straight week and produced 120 total yards and a score. Yes, Roschon Johnson did vulture two short touchdowns, but Swift is unchallenged as the team’s feature back. He’ll take aim at the Jaguars next week, in the London breakfast game.
Rhamondre Stevenson runs past fumbling issues
Stevenson didn’t start at Miami, a light wrist slap for recent fumbling issues. Then he pounded out 12-89-1 on the ground, and caught four passes that went nowhere. New England has a paltry 62 points in five games, so it feels like it’s capped at one touchdown a week. But if you had to bet, you’d expect Stevenson to score it.
In other early-window busts
Bills (and opponents) putting pressure on Josh Allen
Do the Bills need Davante Adams worse than the Jets do? Allen isn’t getting a lot of help these days. He was held to a miserable 9-for-30 passing game at Houston, absorbing three hours of physical pounding (he briefly went into the medical tent in the fourth quarter, but was quickly cleared). Keon Coleman did have a 49-yard catch, but his other targets hit the turf. No one else on the Buffalo roster cleared 35 yards receiving. The Buffalo coaches also have to look in the mirror; puzzling decisions in the game’s final minute gift-wrapped the deciding field goal to the Texans.
Dolphins remain lost despite win
The Dolphins grabbed a win at New England, but there are no fantasy winners when your key guys can’t score touchdowns. The only Dolphins TD was a troll job from Alec Ingold, of all people. At least Tyler Huntley moved up to 6.3 YPA on his 31 attempts, so Tyreek Hill (6-69-0) and Jaylen Waddle (4-46-0) produced like WR3-4s for fantasy. De’Von Achane suffered a first-half concussion, opening up more work for Raheem Mostert (19-80-0) and Jaylen Wright (13-86-0). Miami is quietly hoping Tua Tagovailoa might be able to return around Week 8.
Deshaun Watson’s struggles continue
I don’t know what it would take to get Deshaun Watson benched, but apparently we haven’t hit it yet. Watson took seven sacks and managed a putrid 4.5 YPA against a Washington defense generally seen as one of the five worst in football.
Would the Browns listen if someone called about an Amari Cooper trade?
Quick Hitters
• It doesn’t matter how well the Rams block and how well they sustain offense, Kyren Williams is unstoppable. He now has 12 touchdowns in his last eight games, with seven of them this year. Sure, Blake Corum was sprinkled into the offense, even saw some unsuccessful goal-line work. But Corum can have his six touches when Williams is a lock for 20-plus. And I’d bet a salami sandwich Sean McVay immediately goes back to Williams the next time the Rams are inside the 5-yard line.
• Dontayvion Wicks received the most Green Bay targets but did nothing with them. Meantime, everything is falling right for tight end Tucker Kraft. Luke Musgrave and Christian Watson, hurt. Romeo Doubs just went off the reservation. Jayden Reed is a potential star but you can see how much Matt LaFleur also loves scheming for Kraft. It’s one thing to make a few big plays when the defense breaks down, but all of Kraft’s big plays and touchdowns the last two weeks have come off specific, planned things. He’s a Top 5 tight end until further notice.
• It’s lovely that the Jets finally pepped Garrett Wilson with the 22 targets we dreamt about. The fact that they netted a mere 13-101-1 — that’s less than five yards a target — illustrates that Wilson and Aaron Rodgers still aren’t copasetic. No quarterback ever likes hitting hit, but it’s possible to get gun-shy in your latter years to the point that it compromises your nerve and your willingness to stay in the pocket to let downfield stuff develop. Rodgers has that look right now.
• Sam Darnold had a stat downturn but give the Jets defense the credit for that. Now Minnesota gets a well-placed bye week, and the schedule is a daisy after that — Lions, Rams, Colts, Jaguars. Minnesota should threaten to score 30-plus against all of those teams.
• There’s probably no right answer in the Las Vegas quarterback room, but Brock Bowers looks too good to fail. And Jakobi Meyers should at least be WR3 playable assuming there’s something to the persistent Davante Adams trade rumors.
• Bo Nix continues to improve, other than his three-hour hell in New Jersey last week. But so long as Sean Payton insists on a phone book for a target tree (11 different players drew a Sunday target), this passing offense offers us no utility.
• The 49ers came into Sunday ranked 30th in red-zone efficiency, and they were even worse against Arizona (six trips, one touchdown). My friend and estimable San Francisco observer Gabe has an interesting theory, wondering if Brock Purdy’s height is giving him difficulty processing when the windows get tight around the goal line.
The red zone is difficult for most if not all passers. Your weaknesses get exposed. Purdys weakness is his height. He has a hard time seeing short routes inside the pocket which is why Kyle bootlegs him and rolls him out of pocket so he can see. Tough to do that in red zone
— Gabe (@gaberino75) October 7, 2024
• Brian Daboll and Devin Singletary go way back, but Tyrone Tracy’s detonation in Seattle might be impossible to ignore. It will be interesting to see if contenders inquire about Darius Slayton, a solid support receiver who could be a nice consolation prize for whomever doesn’t get Davante Adams.
• Jaxson Smith-Njigba had a late touchdown to somewhat save a washout game, but I’m still waiting for him to flash like a touted first-round pick is supposed to. The Seahawks thought they were getting a possible No. 1 receiver. Thus far in his pro career, JSN looks like another Tyler Boyd, a useful but quiet support piece.
Brian Hartline has been a terrific receiver coach at Ohio State (and he was also a good pro), but it’s puzzling to figure how Hartline ranked JSN over Chris Olave, Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson 18 months ago, when asked to rank the collegiate players he’s worked with.
• Andy Dalton has now given us all the porridge — one excellent game, one mediocre game, one bad one. Anyone rostering Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard has to be sick over Sunday’s brick, because if Bryce Young’s return comes sooner as opposed to later, the entire offense possibly drives into a ditch. Xavier Legette managers were just unlucky at Chicago, he suffered an early shoulder injury and never returned.
