Germany and the UK signed a significant defence treaty last week, but will it be enough to salvage NATO as Europe gears for a new change of US president this week?
German and UK defence ministers Boris Pistorius and John Healey signed a major defence treaty last week, bolstering cooperation across land, sea, air, and deep precision strike capabilities between the two countries.
The signing of the Trinity House Agreement binds Germany, France and the UK through bilateral treaties. Experts have been sounding the alarm for weeks that NATO and the security of Europe could enter a precarious position after Tuesday’s election of a new US president.
The German government has been preparing for a potential second Donald Trump presidency for months, but other experts suggest that even if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, she will turn her attention away from Europe and towards the Indo-Pacific as early as 2027.
Defence expert Dr. Aylin Matlé says the timing of the agreement is no coincidence.
“Even in a [President] Harris scenario, I expect the US government to demand much more of its European allies,” she adds.
“It certainly is another step towards strengthening the European pillar in NATO. Other steps, for example, are the European long range strike approach, which focuses on developing and acquiring together, in a sort of European context, long range missiles that have become much more vital to the air defence that is suitable for European nations in the wake of, and also the context of, Russia’s renewed attack on Ukraine,” she tells Euronews.
Dr. Matlé says the agreement is another step in adding a further layer to the European side of NATO in the case of a second Trump term.
However, she adds: “I don’t think that this agreement alone will be the silver bullet that will save and help Europeans to contribute much more to their own defence, as well as to take care of their own defence. But I think it certainly is a very important step in political terms, because it sends a message to domestic audiences, but even more importantly to other Europeans and also to US audiences.”
With a second Trump presidency, Dr. Matlé says it would be “very likely that we will see much harsher demands asked of Europeans, most likely Germany, which already happened during his first presidency.”
One of Trump’s strongest criticisms against NATO, and Germany in particular, is that Germany did not spend more than 2% of its GDP on defence before this year, with Trump encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack countries that fell below that threshold.
One of the goals of the treaty, Dr. Matlé says, is for Europe to try to convey to US lawmakers and to both Harris and Trump “they are aware and cognisant of the fact that the US is really the main contributor to European security and defence provisions,” and that Europe is willing to share the burden more.
However, one important thing to note about the Trinity House Agreement is that the pact is not yet legally binding.
“So, the only thing I think is important in this context is that this agreement is not legally binding yet. In order to make it legally binding, both countries have to come up with an actual treaty that will then be signed by both heads of state – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which as far as I know will be drawn up early next year,” she says.
