On November 21, the Russian Armed Forces struck an area near a defense industry facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, with an experimental Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in a video address the day after the attack that the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile could not be intercepted:
There are “no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.”
The claim is likely false.
While hypersonic weapons present unique challenges to missile defense, experts and available evidence suggest that Putin’s claim is an exaggeration of the current technological realities.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported that the Oreshnik missile was launched from Russia’s Kapustin Yar 4th Missile Test Range in the Astrakhan region. The missile traveled for approximately 15 minutes before striking the city of Dnipro. The missile was equipped with six nonnuclear warheads, each containing six submunitions, and it achieved a speed of Mach 11 during its flight.
The Pentagon has described the Oreshnik as a new, experimental intermediate-range missile derived from the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Speed and maneuverability challenges
Hypersonic missiles travel “at speeds greater than Mach 5” while maneuvering unpredictably, making them far more difficult to track and intercept than conventional ballistic missiles. Their speed and agility significantly cut the time defense systems have to respond, posing a serious challenge to current radar and sensor technologies.
However, describing interception as “impossible” ignores ongoing advancements in missile-defense technology. Systems such as the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense are designed to counter fast-moving threats, including some hypersonic missiles. While not foolproof, these systems are continually being upgraded to address evolving threats.
According to Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, the U.S. and Israel possess anti-missile systems capable of shooting down an Oreshnik.
“Systems like SM-3 from Aegis or Aegis Ashore, as well as most likely Arrow 3 and THAAD, can absolutely deal with this type of threat,” Hoffmann told CNN on November 22.
Emerging countermeasures
Several countries, including the United States, are developing technologies specifically aimed at countering hypersonic threats. Key initiatives include:
- The Glide Phase Interceptor being developed by Northrop Grumman in collaboration with Raytheon. These companies are working under contracts with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to create a system capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles during the glide phase of their trajectory, when they are most vulnerable.
- Advanced radar systems such as the new generation Long-Range Discrimination Radar are designed to detect and track hypersonic weapons.
- Directed energy weapons are laser-based systems being explored as potential countermeasures for hypersonic threats.
Testing and real-world evidence
Despite Putin’s claim, Russia has not provided conclusive evidence that the Oreshnik missile is operationally deployed or that it has been tested in conditions replicating modern Western missile defense environments. So far, Russia has used Oreshnik once and against a country that does not have Western air defense systems capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles.
According to Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russian nuclear policy and strategic weapons, Moscow tends to exaggerate its capabilities and “itself may not actually know if air defense systems can intercept this [Oreshnik] missile. These claims remain unsubstantiated without tests or real combat attempts to shoot it down.”
Previous tests of Russian hypersonic weapons, such as the Avangard glide vehicle, have demonstrated capabilities but also faced skepticism regarding their real-world applicability and effectiveness.
Furthermore, the United States and its allies have conducted successful interceptions of fast-moving targets in controlled environments. For example, tests of THAAD and Aegis systems have demonstrated their ability to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, albeit inconsistently against hypersonic targets.
Other Russian hypersonic missiles ‘impossible to intercept’
Putin’s statement fits a pattern of emphasizing Russia’s advanced military capabilities to assert strategic dominance and influence international perception. Previously, he made similar claims about the impossibility of intercepting other weapons systems, including the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and the Zircon hypersonic missile.
Despite Russian claims that the missile is on “combat alert,” the Sarmat has faced significant setbacks since its 2022 flight test, with four failed launches, the latest occurring on September 21, 2024.
The Zircon missile, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 9, is one of the fastest hypersonic weapons. Nevertheless, when Russia launched two Zircon missiles at Kyiv on March 25, according to Ukrainian sources, both were intercepted by air defense systems.
Photographs of missile debris were later published. Ukrainian officials, including Major Illia Yevlash, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, assert that systems like the Patriot and the SAMP/T can destroy the Zircon in its terminal phase, slowing to Mach 4.5, a view supported by Western analysts such as former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe.
“The good news is that in missile warfare, especially dealing with Russian weapons, ‘claimed’ and ‘actual’ capabilities are often very different. … Is Zircon an undefeatable superweapon: no. Is learning how to counter it difficult, yes,” Sharpe wrote April 3 in The Telegraph.
