Roki Sasaki is signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s just say Vegas didn’t overreact.
Last week, the Dodgers were +320 favorites to win the 2025 World Series, via BetMGM. On Saturday, they were +300 favorites to win the 2025 World Series. That works out to a change in implied probability from 23.81% to 25%.
The bigger impact was felt earlier in the offseason, when the Dodgers went from their opening line of +400 to +320 after signing Blake Snell.
That might seem counterintuitive given that Sasaki, 23, has been presented by many as one of the best pitching prospects in recent MLB history. His signing bonus was reportedly only $6.5 million, but he had the talent to easily have received a nine-figure deal had he been allowed to hit the open market rather than be beholden to international signing rules for players his age.
However, the mild change could be most attributable to the addition of Sasaki already being baked into the Dodgers’ odds, while Snell was a minor surprise. Whether or not there was a handshake deal behind the scenes for Sasaki to don Dodger blue, nearly every observer pointed to the Dodgers as the favorite to sign him when he was posted. And when MLB’s best team has the inside track on a player like Sasaki, Vegas isn’t going to wait for a deal to go through to insulate itself.
There was still some mystery over what Sasaki would do, simply because the San Diego Padres were seen as a co-favorite and, at the end of the day, the decision came down to the preferences of a 23-year-old who doesn’t speak much to the media. Sasaki finally announcing his choice ended that uncertainty.
2025 World Series odds as of Jan. 18
All odds via BetMGM:
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Dodgers +300
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Braves +850
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Yankees +850
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Mets +1000
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Phillies +1100
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Orioles +1500
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Astros +1600
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Padres +1800
The Dodgers aren’t the odds-on favorite they’ve been painted as
If you were to judge the Dodgers’ World Series chances by the reaction they inspired in some corners of the internet when they landed Sasaki, you would be forgiven for wondering why there were even playing games this year.
There’s little argument the Dodgers aren’t the top team in MLB. They won 98 games last year despite persistent injury issues, won the 2024 World Series, then added Sasaki, Snell, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim while retaining Teoscar Hernandez and Blake Treinen. It’s been about as perfect an offseason as Dodgers fans could have imagined (non-Juan Soto department).
And yet, even with all their financial might and brain power, Vegas isn’t giving them anything more than a 1-in-4 chance to win the Fall Classic.
That’s how baseball works. The Golden State Warriors might have been -150 favorites after landing Kevin Durant, but the nature of the MLB playoffs is any team can go down if they have a rough few games. The Dodgers were on the brink of elimination in the 2024 NLDS and needed a complete shutdown of the Padres just to win their first series. Odds of +300 are still incredibly high by baseball standards, but the Dodgers shouldn’t be getting fitted for a third ring in six years just yet.
So there’s still reason to watch your team this season, if it’s actually trying to compete. There’s no doubt it’s fun being a Dodgers fan now, but being a fan of the team that shocks the Dodgers in the playoffs could be even better.
