Roki Sasaki was named the No. 1 overall prospect in MLB by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline this week. That means his $6.5 million sweetheart deal just got even better for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Because those two outlets opted to rank Sasaki as a legitimate prospect, the Dodgers can officially receive a significant draft pick should Sasaki make their Opening Day roster (or be promoted in the first two weeks of the season) and either win Rookie of the Year or place in the top 3 of MVP or Cy Young voting in any of the next three seasons.
Sasaki is currently BetMGM’s favorite to win the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year award at +200 odds.
This is all due to MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), the program instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement to disincentive teams from playing the service-time game with their top prospects. A player is eligible to earn his team a draft pick if he a) has rookie eligibility at the start of the season b) accrues a near-full season’s worth of service time and c) appears in at least two of the Top 100 lists from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN.
For example, the Kansas City Royals will pick 28th overall, the first pick after the first round, in the 2025 MLB Draft because star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. because he finished in the Top 3 in AL MVP voting last years.
There is an exception that rules out “foreign professionals” from being eligible, but that only applies if they’re 25 or older. Sasaki is 23 years old, which means he is for all intents and purposes just another player on a minor-league contract, which is why MLB teams could only offer him a fraction of his open-market value in free agency.
There was some speculation the prospect outlets could have opted to not rank Sasaki given that he’s hardly a traditional prospect. However, he was officially signed as an international amateur free agent, despite having played professionally for five years.
Obviously, the Dodgers aren’t complaining. They’ve had nothing to complain about all offseason.
Who could challenge Roki Sasaki for NL Rookie of the Year?
Righ behind Sasaki on the BetMGM odds board is Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 draft who made his MLB debut late last season. His odds come in at +400 and he is ranked by MLB Pipeline as baseball’s No. 4 prospect.
Also at +400 is Chicago Cubs shortstop Matt Shaw, MLB Pipeline’s No. 19 prospect. While he doesn’t quite have Crews’ prospect pedigree, he has an open window to be his team’s starting third baseman on Opening Day.
The odds take a jump after those top 3, with Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Bubba Chandler at +1000 and Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar at +1400.
And just in case you’re curious, Sasaki is +5000 to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award.
The Dodgers’ farm system remains one of the best in baseball
Sasaki placing first on overall prospects is hardly surprising — he can easily hit 100 mph with his fastball, his splitter is considered one of the best pitches in the world and he held a 2.02 ERA in Japan’s NPB. The only real concern about him is his health.
It remains staggering, however, that he was only one of six Dodgers on Pipeline’s Top 100, despite the team having not having a top 20 draft pick since 2016 and not having a top 10 draft pick since Clayton Kershaw in 2006.
Behind Sasaki are catcher Dalton Rushing at No. 30, outfielder Josue De Paula at No. 40, pitcher Jackson Ferris at No. 71, shortstop Alex Freeland at No. 72 and outfielder Zyhir Hope at No. 75.
For perspective, those six prospects are as many as the rest of the NL West has combined. That’s what a decade of pouring more resources into scouting and player development than any other team will get you.
