For almost a month, security forces in the semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland have been advancing on the mountainous hideouts of Islamic State militants.
The fiercest clashes occurred late last week when the regional forces dislodged the militants from Turmasaale, a strategic location about 150 kilometers southeast of Bosaso.
Puntland’s leader, Said Abdullahi Deni, went to the airport over the weekend to meet wounded soldiers, including a senior officer, a sign of clashes taking place. Before the Turmasaale clashes, the region’s forces seized caves, camps and small villages largely unopposed.
Brigadier General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, who until recently was the commander of special operations for the Somali army and has been following the offensive in his home region, said losing Turmasaale was a blow for IS as it was the militants’ main supply route.
“This is where they were coordinating both attacks — mainly drone-deployed ammunition, IEDs, attacking the Puntland forces — but also getting their resupply, whether it’s rations or whatever. So it was a strategic achievement by the Puntland forces,” he said.
He said both sides suffered casualties from the fighting over Turmasaale, the biggest confrontation so far.
“There has been almost daily fighting. The Puntland forces have suffered casualties, mainly from IEDs, which is the weapon of choice of terrorism everywhere,” he said. “But they have been progressing on very well for the past three weeks. And they have captured several important locations. The regional forces so far have the upper hand for sure.”
The IS group’s main camps, located in the vicinity of Dhaadaar village, have yet to be reached.
The IS group claimed responsibility for attacks against Puntland forces, including a deadly suicide attack on Dec. 31, 2024, which the group said was carried out by militants from multiple countries.
Sheikh said he believes Puntland forces can achieve a military victory against IS before Ramadan, which starts in four weeks.
“This operation was planned very well. It was prepared very well,” he said. “The mobilization was exceptional. and they have huge support from the local communities, which is very important.”
Sheikh said the presence of foreign fighters in the Islamic State camps gives both locals and Puntland forces extra motivation.
“If you capture their bases and camps and strategic headquarters, that for me will be the measurement of victory,” he added.
IS presence in Somalia small but growing
It has been 10 years since about two dozen al-Shabab fighters defected from the group, set up an Islamic State Somalia branch and gave allegiance to the group’s then-leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The group remained small for years but appealed to foreign fighters who came to Somalia, mainly from the Middle East and from other parts of East Africa.
Some U.S. officials also believe that IS Somalia’s leader, Abdulkadir Mumin, is also the emir of IS global. Others disagree but there is consensus that Mumin is nonetheless a pivotal figure, with a recent United Nations report naming him as the group’s directorate of provinces, “placing him in a leadership role over [IS] affiliates in Africa.”
On the ground, observers believe Mumin is in firm control of the group as leader, as well as a dealmaker who acts between the locals and militants.
The office of IS in Somalia was already documented to run the terrorist group’s financial network.
The U.S. supports Somali security forces, training the elite Danab forces in multiple locations. The U.S. has also conducted airstrikes against al-Shabab and Islamic State, with 10 reported strikes in 2024.
One of the strikes killed Mohamed Mire, a top al-Shabab commander, on Dec. 24 in southern Somalia. Sheikh himself was trained by the U.S. and previously served as the commander of Danab.
A U.S. defense official declined to comment on the anti-IS operation underway in
Puntland but said the United States has not wavered in its support for Somali forces.
“The Department [of Defense] remains committed to supporting our partners in our shared efforts to disrupt, degrade, and defeat VEOs [violent extremist organizations] in the Horn of Africa,” the official told VOA, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing counterterror efforts.
The Pentagon “has maintained a long-term focus on working with African partner nations to build defense institutional capacity and enable partnered operations … with a particular focus on countering al-Shabab and ISIS-Somalia,” the official said, pointing, in particular, to more than a decade of support for the Danab Brigade.
The Trump administration withdrew U.S. forces from Somalia during the last few weeks of its first term in January 2021. But President Joe Biden reversed the decision in May 2022, sending in about 500 U.S. special operation forces to help Somali forces counter both IS and al-Shabab.
Some Somali officials fear a similar disengagement with Trump back in the White House.
Sheikh said he “doubts” it will be repeated.
“The terrorism is still a real threat and obviously is the threat in Somalia,” he said.
Abdi Hassan Hussein “Abdi Yare” is Puntland’s former chief of police and former head of the region’s intelligence agency.
He said the campaign to combat Islamic State is crucial for the broader security of Somalia and the region, as this group poses a security danger to all countries in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
Abdi Yare cautioned that the fighting could last a long time.
“It is difficult to predict the damage that can be done, and it is true that the area to be fought is very difficult in terms of traffic, necessitating the troops to carry infantry or guerrilla warfare, which may prolong the war,” he said.
Yare does not think the group’s power has diminished significantly.
“The group’s power has not diminished; it is still quite strong, and it is prepared for a long-term conflict, having drilled holes in Mount Al-Madow to deliver food, military equipment, and all necessary materials,” he said.
He estimates the group has between 1,200 and 1,600 fighters. That number is still unverified. For a long time, experts believed IS fighters in Somalia numbered only a few hundred.
A report issued this past November by the United Nations Sanctions Monitoring Team for Somalia, based on member state intelligence, estimated IS-Somalia had more than doubled in size to between 600 and 700 fighters.
It further warned the terror group’s numbers in Puntland were boosted by an influx of fighters from Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania and Yemen.
Some experts told VOA they expected the trend to continue.
Abdi Yare predicts Mumin could flee to Yemen if the group is defeated in Puntland. He also warned that IS militants could resort to desperate attacks targeting civilians in populated cities like Bosaso.
