The European aviation industry has drastically scaled back its ambitions for hydrogen-powered planes to help it reach net zero by 2050, according to a new forecast that warns the costs of decarbonisation have “ballooned”.
Airlines, airports and other parts of the aviation sector have committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 through a mix of new technologies, particularly by switching to alternative fuels.
But in an update to a net zero road map published on Tuesday, industry groups said they expected hydrogen-powered planes to be responsible for just 6 per cent of net emissions reductions by 2050, down from 20 per cent in 2021.
“The contribution by hydrogen-powered aircraft and the switch to hydrogen as fuel is notably reduced,” said the report, which was commissioned by five trade bodies as an update to an original 2021 net zero plan.
“This is due to the lower anticipated market share of hydrogen-powered aircraft . . . and the later entry into service of the hydrogen-powered single-aisle [aircraft],” it added.
The trade bodies reaffirmed the overall commitment to reaching net zero by 2050 but said the report represented a “reality check” for the European Commission and called for “urgent action” to support decarbonisation efforts.
The industry’s report also forecast that European aviation faces more than €1.3tn in extra costs to reach net zero, €480bn more than previously thought.
“The costs of getting to net zero have ballooned . . . We as [an] aviation industry can simply not do this alone,” said Olivier Jankovec, director-general of airport trade body ACI Europe.
This is largely because of the rising cost of switching to “sustainable aviation fuels”, which are made not from fossil fuels but from other feedstocks such as crops, cooking oil or household waste.
Unlike hydrogen, SAFs can be used in current aircraft engines and can reduce a flight’s emissions by about 70 per cent. But they are more expensive than jet fuel and are only produced in limited quantities.
As the potential from other breakthrough technologies such as hydrogen or electric-powered flights dims, airlines are increasingly reliant on SAFs to lower their emissions.
“Hydrogen planes have nearly vanished from the road map,” said Carlos López de la Osa, aviation manager at T&E, an environmental NGO.
“Europe must take back control of the zero emissions aircraft market by setting the right policies and push aircraft manufacturers to deliver on their promises,” he said.
European plane maker Airbus has been notably more optimistic than its rival Boeing on the potential for hydrogen flight, and has worked with airlines, airports and energy companies to help drive the necessary investment into the infrastructure needed to make it a reality.
Airbus said it was still committed to its goal of bringing a “commercially viable, fully electric hydrogen-powered aircraft to market”.
The European plane maker plans to have a short-range plane ready for service by 2035 and has been exploring four different concepts based on either hydrogen combustion or hydrogen fuel cell technology.
The company, however, acknowledged that progress in developing the infrastructure, notably the availability of hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources at scale, had been “slower than anticipated”.
“While hydrogen is anticipated to play a growing role in the second half of this century, its contribution to 2050 decarbonisation targets will complement other solutions,” the company added.
Guillaume Faury, Airbus chief executive, insisted last month that the company’s plans had not changed.
“We have spent really a lot of money, time, effort and a lot of good engineers on hydrogen because we believe in it, but it won’t be the solution for the next 20 years,” he said.
“We will be spending more time in 2025 on better understanding the speed at which the hydrogen economy will grow . . . It’s not enough to have a plane if you have no infrastructure, no hydrogen in the right place, at the right time, at the right quantity and the right price.”
Other industry players including easyJet and Rolls-Royce are also testing the potential for hydrogen-powered engines.
Trade body Airlines4Europe said hydrogen was still part of the “multiple solutions” to decarbonise flying.
“It’s now optimistic to assume any more than ~5 per cent of decarbonisation through H₂ in aviation by 2050, thanks to the realities of safety, operations and cost,” said Nikhil Sachdeva, global lead for sustainable aviation at consultants Roland Berger.
