It will likely be the highest-grossing boxing event in the Barclays Center’s rich history when Gervonta “Tank” Davis defends his WBA lightweight title against WBA super featherweight champion Lamont Roach on Saturday in Brooklyn, New York.
Davis, Uncrowned’s No. 9 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, is a heavy favorite heading into the bout, but can Roach pull off what would be a titanic upset?
The Davis vs. Roach main card begins Saturday at 8 p.m. ET and airs live on Prime Video pay-per-view for $79.99. Uncrowned will have round-by-round coverage of the entire card.
So who wins and how? Let’s break it all down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
WBA lightweight title: Gervonta Davis (-1800) vs. Lamont Roach (+1050)
Davis (30-0, 28 KOs) has won world titles at super featherweight and lightweight. He went up to super lightweight for one bout in 2021 and claimed the WBA (Regular) strap with an 11th-round TKO win over Mario Barrios, who currently holds the WBC welterweight title.
Roach moves up to the 135-pound lightweight limit for Saturday’s bout. It’ll be the first time he’s competed in a significant bout above the 130-pound super featherweight division, so he’ll likely still be getting accustomed to the new weight class on fight night.
Davis is a relatively small lightweight and his frame isn’t too much bigger than Roach’s, so Roach won’t face much of a size disadvantage. But “Tank” has managed to compete against and beat bigger men for many years due to his tremendous punching power — Davis carries a ridiculous 93.3% knockout rate, one of the highest in all of boxing.
Roach, by contrast, owns just 10 knockouts from his 25 career victories, good for a 40% knockout-to-win rate. It’s unlikely Roach’s power will be enough to trouble Davis significantly — and if Davis realizes that Roach can’t hurt him after a couple rounds, he may just choose to walk Roach down and search for the perfect counter-punch — much like Davis did against Frank Martin this past June.
Martin had success in the first six rounds against Davis and was up four rounds to two on the broadcast’s unofficial scorecard through the first half of their contest. But “Tank” tends to give away the early rounds as he tries to break his opponent down and force them to throw more than they’d like to — and by the eighth round, Martin was just another victim on Davis’ knockout résumé.
Roach isn’t an out-and-out back-foot boxer and will look to mix it up with Davis at times in the center of the ring, much like he did against Hector Luis Garcia. This is, however, a dangerous strategy against a power puncher like Tank and could result in a devastating end to Saturday’s contest.
The Washington D.C. native will have to be more defensively adept than he’s been in recent bouts, as “Tank” only needs one shot to end this fight. Roach has a very active jab and a two-inch reach advantage, both of which will be vital against Davis as he cannot let “Tank” stay in punching range consistently.
Davis will be looking to confuse Roach by throwing plenty of feints and switching levels, hoping to pick up on a defensive flaw that he can exploit. Despite his reputation outside of the ring, Davis is very much a thinking boxer inside of it. When Ryan Garcia and Leo Santa Cruz made the mistake of throwing the same shot over and over again, leaving themselves open defensively, “Tank” made them both pay.
I expect Roach to have success in the early rounds at long range and occasionally catch Davis in exchanges due to his reach advantage, similar to the success Rolando Romero had against Davis. But Roach leaves himself open to counters, and I expect Davis to capitalize devastatingly in the second half of the fight.
Final pick: Davis KO in Rounds 7-12.
WBA super lightweight title: Jose Valenzuela (+105) vs. Gary Antuanne Russell (-130)
Jose “Rayo” Valenzuela makes the first defense of the WBA super lightweight title he claimed with an upset split decision win over Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz this past August.
While Valenzuela comes into the bout with a career-best win, Gary Antuanne Russell heads into it following his only professional defeat: a split decision loss to Alberto Puello in June.
Valenzuela (14-2, 9 KOs) outboxed Cruz at long range, using terrific movement and body punching to frustrate Cruz. His best asset is his footwork. Valenzuela has been nicknamed “Rayochenko” — in tribute to the legendary Vasiliy Lomachenko — because of the angles he creates and punches off.
Russell (17-1, 17 KOs) was outboxed by Puello in a fight that looked somewhat similar to Valenzuela vs. Cruz. Russell struggled to pin down the southpaw mover Puello and was on the end of Puello’s right-hand jab for much of the contest.
If Russell hasn’t improved from the Puello defeat, this is a good stylistic matchup for Valenzuela. I expect Valenzuela to box just as he did against Cruz, as that’s how Puello had success against Russell. The key difference is that Russell won’t be dwarfed by Valenzuela as he was by Cruz — Valenzuela and Russell are the same height and have a very similar reach.
Russell is perhaps a bigger puncher than Cruz as well, so Valenzuela will have to keep his defense tight. Valenzuela was knocked out by another puncher, Edwin De Los Santos, in three rounds in 2022, so he can be caught and he can be hurt.
Final pick: Valenzuela by decision.
WBC super lightweight title: Alberto Puello (-130) vs. Sandor Martin (+110)
Alberto Puello (23-0, 10 KOs) earned the WBC interim title with a split decision win over Russell and was eventually upgraded to full WBC champion after the WBC made Devin Haney the champion in recess. Now he’s been ordered to make the first defense of his title against Spanish southpaw, Sandor Martin.
There’s a strong chance Puello vs. Martin won’t be stealing the show on Saturday night. Martin, like Puello, is a tremendous southpaw mover with sharp counter-punching abilities.
Martin (42-3, 15 KOs) had his breakout moment when he upset four-division world champion Mikey Garcia in 2021. The Spaniard was a heavy underdog heading into the bout, but he frustrated Garcia with his twitchy movement and sharp shots. He was then chosen to be Teofimo Lopez’s opponent in 2022. Martin dropped Lopez but ultimately lost a controversial split decision.
“Do I still have it, man? Do I still got it?” Those were the words muttered by Lopez in the ring after his underwhelming performance against Martin.
Martin has performed at a higher level compared to Puello, and I expect him to edge a close decision just by being a bit more awkward early on and experienced down the stretch.
Final pick: Martin by decision.
WBA interim super welterweight title: Yoenis Tellez vs. Julian Williams
Cuba’s Yoenis Tellez is one of the top prospects coming down the super welterweight pipeline. He impressed with a seventh-round TKO win over Johan Gonzalez on the Bakhram Murtazaliev vs. Tim Tszyu undercard in October.
Julian Williams has seen better days. He’s best known for his upset win over Jarrett Hurd in 2019 to win the unified 154-pound crown. Since then, he’s lost three out of his past five fights — two of them inside the distance.
Williams (29-4-1, 17 KOs) is a good stepping stone for Tellez. He hasn’t lost his defensive skills completely, so I can see Tellez taking a few rounds to break Williams down. Tellez (9-0, 7 KOs) isn’t as aggressive as Carlos Adames, who stopped Williams in nine rounds.
Tellez is a good body puncher though, and that will be key for him to get to Williams in the late rounds. Adames had plenty of success with punches to Williams’ body, which is how he slowed down Williams’ movement and put together combinations consistently for a stoppage.
Final pick: Tellez by late KO/TKO.
