POLITICAL MOTIVATIONS TO DELAY THE TRIAL
The political motivations to delay the trial are clear for some senators. Seven are running for re-election in the May midterm elections. The trial, which could last for months, will distract them and the country from their electoral campaigns.
As the senatorial elections are an extremely competitive race, for some candidates including celebrities and political scions, the worry is that an impeachment trial may harm their re-election chances if the electorate views them as lacking in legal expertise or knowledge (and thus unqualified to render judgment on Sara Duterte).
The legislative allies of Marcos Jr and a genuine opposition of politicians and pro-democratic civil society organisations now find themselves in the same political boat seeking the vice president’s conviction to hold her accountable.
However, Sara Duterte’s defenders believe that the first group’s ulterior motive is to prevent her from running for the presidency in 2028, as Marcos Jr is limited to a single six-year presidential term. Constitutionally speaking, a conviction verdict can mean that Sara Duterte is perpetually barred from holding any office.
Current polls indicate that Sara Duterte remains the strongest presidential contender in 2028 (she is the choice of just under a third of respondents surveyed). Therefore, her supporters see the impeachment trial as less of a serious drive to hold power to account but more of a means to stymie the Duterte dynasty’s return to the peak of Philippine politics.
Another Duterte presidency in 2028 will pose a direct existential threat to the Marcoses and their allies.
Democratic forces seem caught in a quandary given the Marcos-Duterte clans’ polarisation. Politicians and activists seem unable to differentiate their own positions from either the Marcos or Duterte camps’ since the break-up of the dynasties’ short-lived alliance.
