WASHINGTON — Over the past several weeks, President Joe Biden has privately expressed confidence that he’s going to win the November election, according to three people familiar with his comments, in a shift from the frustration with the status of his campaign that he was venting to aides just a couple months ago.
The turnabout in Biden’s mood has been propelled in part by recent polling that shows him gaining ground against former President Donald Trump, these people said. But, they added, he’s also been buoyed by more frequent trips to battleground states and an apparent coalescence around his candidacy by some Democrats who had yet to embrace him.
The president has particularly been cheered by specific metrics his campaign advisers are now providing to him on a regular basis: the increasing number of campaign offices being opened and staff being hired, as well as efforts to expand the reach of the campaign’s low-dollar fundraising program, a Biden campaign official said.
“He just thinks he’s going to win,” one of the people familiar with Biden’s private comments said.
Biden doesn’t necessarily point to anything specific to explain why he believes he’s going to win; rather, at times, he’s told people close to him that he just feels it, according to two of the people familiar with his comments.
The Biden campaign declined to comment for this piece.
The president’s positive outlook on his re-election prospects is a significant reversal of his views for much of the past year since his campaign launched. For months, the president has privately expressed frustrations, which at times have boiled over into anger and outbursts at staff, over his diminished standing with voters. Indeed, complaints about Americans not giving him credit he believes he deserves for what he sees as his accomplishments, including an economy trending in a positive direction and bipartisan infrastructure legislation, have been a recurrence for much of Biden’s time in the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump has faced a challenging few weeks, with his position on abortion — that it should be left up to states — getting pushback from his GOP base. Trump now has been in a criminal courtroom in Manhattan stewing in unflattering courtroom sketches and scandalous headlines over allegations he paid off a porn star during his 2016 presidential run.
Still, in what’s expected to be a tumultuous campaign, where world and economic events could shift again and again, Biden’s upbeat outlook could be short-lived.
Biden has little control over some key factors shaping the current political environment. Inflation is still high and remains a top concern for some key voters Biden needs to win over. Security at the U.S. southern border remains an unresolved — and leading — worry for many voters. Multiple polls have shown voters trust Trump more on the border.
Additionally, opposition to Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which Biden has supported, continues to grow across the country, and months of efforts to reach a cease-fire deal have so far failed. Protests against the war have escalated on college campuses, with students building encampments and facing off with law enforcement, at a time when Biden is struggling with young voters. Voters also continue to raise concerns about his age, 81. And polls, while tightening, still show the race between Biden and Trump as a toss-up.
“No one is naïve about how close this election will be,” one Biden adviser said. At the same time, the adviser said there’s a feeling among the president’s team that “the campaign has finally hit its stride.”
A new NBC News poll released this week showed some positive signs for Biden, but also that he still needs to make significant inroads with key voters to win in November, Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Biden’s overall job approval rating increased to 42% in the new NBC News poll, up from 37% in January. The uptick was largely from core Democrats. But Biden is still struggling to win over young voters, Latinos and independents, and continues to trail Trump when it comes to voter confidence in his leadership, according to the poll.
“He’s showing strength but there’s still a ways to go on where he needs to be,” Horwitt said.
One Biden aide said the president is feeling momentum that began with his State of the Union address last month was well received by Democrats. The president has confidence in his advisers’ campaign plan for the next six months, the aide said, while adding: “We see this as a very close race that will be until the very end.”
In addition to an average of two presidential visits to battleground states a week, part of the current phase of that plan has included spending money to beef up the Biden campaign.
After months in which his campaign was holding off building out its campaign infrastructure — to the dismay of worried Democrats who would occasionally convey that to Biden or others close to him — the tangible signs of a campaign operation rapidly building out have contributed to Biden’s sunnier outlook.
As Biden has traveled to battleground states recently, the campaign has worked to include not just traditional retail stops at a diner or supporter’s home, but also visits to local campaign offices partly so Biden can see that build-out is more than just numbers on a briefing paper.
“There’s a real groundswell going on because of you, and it matters,” Biden told volunteers at a union hall in Scranton, Pennsylvania, last week after rattling through some statistics about the campaign.
Some of the president’s recent public comments seem to indicate his private confidence. He’s made fun of Trump’s difficulties posting bond in a civil judgment, his falling asleep during a court proceeding and even his hair.
“By the way, remember, he was trying to deal with Covid, he said just inject a little bleach in your veins. He missed — it all went to his hair,” Biden said Wednesday at a union event. “I shouldn’t have said that. I probably shouldn’t have said that. You guys are a bad influence on me.”
Biden referred to a positive shift in his standing the following day at a fundraiser hosted by the actor Michael Douglas.
“While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor,” Biden said, adding, “Polls are moving towards us and away from Trump.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
