It can be hard to keep track of trends in the spirits world as different categories rise and fall. Irish whiskey had a moment, then tequila was set to overtake American whiskey sales, and apparently even sotol might be a thing now (at least Lenny Kravitz hopes so). But recent news just arrived that the Scotch whisky market is set to grow to a record $15 billion in global sales by 2028, which is good news for the 150 distilleries currently making single malts and blends across every region of Scotland.
Global research and advisory company Technavio issued this new report, citing the increase in ultra-premium and luxury releases as the driving factor of this projected growth. This increase in sales over the next four years amounts to a compound annual growth rate of more than nine percent, with expensive expressions and leading the way. “High-end Scotch whiskies are valued for their exceptional quality and exclusivity, commanding higher prices compared to standard options,” said the report. “Consumers gladly pay more for the craftsmanship and refined flavors found in these premium offerings. Luxury whiskies often boast longer maturation periods, resulting in complex taste profiles.”
There are some challenges, of course, and according to Technavio the main obstacle is the competition that other drinks categories pose, specifically mezcal, vodka, rum, and tequila, which tracks with last year’s news about the rise of agave spirits. While European nations like Germany, France, and Italy are proving to be lucrative markets for these other categories, in China the main challenge is baiju. The Asian market, and China in particular, has been important for high-end single malts over the years, but baiju remains at the top of the booze chain based on sales volume alone. The report offers a vague remedy: “To thrive in this competitive environment, Scotch whisky manufacturers must focus on innovative marketing, product development, and customer base expansion.” That sounds good, but single-malt distilleries and the giant companies behind them like Diageo and Pernod Ricard are going to need more than platitudes.
There are some suspect elements in this report, it should be noted. In the “analyst review” section, it talks about how “health-conscious” drinkers are interested in Scotch because of its “natural antioxidant properties, potentially reducing risks of heart disease and strokes.” Attributing any health benefits to drinking whisky is irresponsible and potentially dangerous, so that part should be ignored—as many recent studies have warned recently, alcohol is not good for you, full stop. That isn’t to say you shouldn’t enjoy a dram of whisky when you’re in the mood, but this kind of messaging is ridiculous.
Overall, this report is good news for the Scotch whisky industry, provided it turns out to be true. We’ll check back in four years to see how Technavio’s bullish predictions played out.
