ASEAN ATTENDEES
Dr Ian Storey, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told CNA that Singapore, the Philippines and Timor-Leste have all taken a strong stand over Russian aggression against Ukraine, so it’s not surprising they will participate.
Of the countries who have confirmed their attendance, Singapore is the only regional state to have imposed unilateral sanctions against Russia.
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong confirmed earlier this month that the city state will send Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sim Ann to represent the country at the peace summit.
On Jun 3, Mr Zelenskyy visited the Philippine capital Manila – his first visit to the country – to personally invite Philippine President Bongbong Marcos to take part in the summit. He claimed that Mr Marcos confirmed his attendance, according to media reports.
“Your (Philippines) voice is very important. This region is very important,” Zelensky said, as quoted in local news platform PhilStar.
However, around a week later, Mr Marcos confirmed that he would not be attending in person and would instead be represented by Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity Carlito Galvez Jr.
The Presidential Communications Office (PCO) has yet to respond to queries on why the president is not attending the event.
Thailand has confirmed its deputy foreign minister Russ Jalichandra will represent it at the summit.
According to the Bangkok Post, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin confirmed Thailand’s participation during his May meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, a key NATO player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Recently, Thailand has voted in favour of four UN resolutions relating to the war and abstained on two.
Indonesia has also confirmed that it will send its ambassador to attend the summit.
Dr Alan Chong, Senior Fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that both current incumbent president Joko Widodo and incoming president Prabowo Subianto have been vocal over another current conflict, the ongoing war in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Mr Prabowo recently held a meeting on Jun 11 with top US diplomat Antony Blinken in Jordan to discuss efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Dr Chong believes this has influenced Indonesia’s stance towards the upcoming peace summit.
“(It) wants to take the moral high ground, and speak out against all aggression,” he told CNA. “You cannot say you condemn Israel but not Russia.”
He added that hopeful newcomer Timor-Leste is using the summit as “a diplomatic spotlight” to show that it has political allies outside the regional bloc.
“It is trying to get into ASEAN, but it wants to play hard to get,” he said.
“President (José) Ramos-Horta is using this event as a signal to ASEAN to say ‘we’ve got friends elsewhere’.”
THE LIKELY ABSENTEES
Former Cambodia prime minister Hun Sen, whose son Mr Hun Manet is current prime minister, announced on Jun 7 that the country would not attend because Russia was not invited and the event is not expected to be successful.
In the “Cambodia’s Foreign Policy in the ASEAN Context” Discussion Forum, Secretary of State and Senior Official of Cambodia Kung Phoak stressed the decision was not related to Cambodia’s stand on the war.
“The decision to participate in the summit is the right of a sovereign state in considering whether all of the conditions will contribute to the effort seeking a solution that leads toward lasting peace,” he said, quoted in local media, adding that it cannot be considered a change in Cambodia’s position.
In his commentary published a day earlier on ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Fulcrum site, Dr Storey had written that Cambodia’s response would be interesting to watch.
He pointed out how when the invasion happened, Mr Hun Sen had resisted pressure from China to abstain from the United Nations General Assembly’s resolutions on Ukraine.
“As Zelenskyy has charged, but China has denied, Cambodia may well have come under pressure from Beijing to stay away. If Prime Minister Hun Manet does go to Switzerland, it suggests he is determined to uphold Cambodia’s strategic autonomy,” Dr Storey wrote.
Malaysia is the second ASEAN country to have declined attendance. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been more outspoken on the Gaza War, but unlike his Indonesian counterparts, has abstained from the peace summit.
Some ASEAN countries deemed unlikely to attend also have longstanding relationships with Russia, said Dr Storey.
Since the military seized control of the country and ousted a democratically elected government in February 2021, Myanmar has moved closer to the Kremlin, in a bid to secure Russian military hardware.
“Military ties between Russia and Myanmar are at an all-time high since the coup,” said a Yangon-based political analyst, quoted in Nikkei Asia.
According to a Swedish think tank SIPRI, quoted in Fulcrum, between 2021 and 2022, Russia provided Myanmar with US$276 million in military supplies.
In February last year, Myanmar and Russia marked the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. Russia was the only major power to acknowledge the Tatmadaw military’s 2021 power grab.
Equally, Myanmar was the only ASEAN member state to endorse Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and to send military supplies to Russia’s armed forces.
Vietnam has so far adopted a more neutral stance on the war, consistent with its commitment to “bamboo diplomacy.”
While in the first year of the war in Eastern Europe, the Vietnamese government provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine by donating US$500,000 to international relief organisations, Vietnam has longstanding ties to Russia.
Vietnam, one of the world’s major arms imports over the last few decades, has sourced large amounts of equipment from Russia, although according to regional media, the Southeast Asian nation placed no significant orders last year.
Vietnam abstained on four of the United Nations General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine between 2022 and 2023 and voted against the motion to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Council on 7 Apr 2022.
Like Vietnam, Laos similarly has forged ties with Russia in the past. In 2003, Russia decided to cancel 70 per cent of Laos’ national debt and provide preferential repayment conditions for its remaining balance of US$378 million over the next 33 years.
More recently, a number of business forums have been held in both Laos and Russia to encourage cooperation in the digital economy, smart cities, education and tourism.
Russia has also reportedly said it will support Laos’ healthcare system modernisation. In 2021, it provided US$12 million to upgrade the Mittaphab Hospital in Vientiane.
“Vietnam and Laos are old friends of Russia and won’t attend the summit. Both countries remain grateful to Moscow for the crucial support the Soviet Union provided to them during the Cold War. And both countries remain dependent on Russia to keep their Russian-equipped armed forces operational,” said Dr Storey.
“In addition, President Putin is scheduled to visit Vietnam from Jun 19 to Jun 20 and Hanoi won’t want to offend the Kremlin in the run-up to his visit.”
Brunei is still deliberating on the invitation, although Dr Storey believes that “they appear to have declined the invitation,” citing his sources in the Brunei government.
As ASEAN leaders weigh up different factors behind their decisions, the summit will have one unifying factor of importance to all its members, according to Dr Storey.
“The most important aspect of the summit from Southeast Asia’s perspective will be the discussions on food security,” he told CNA.
“The biggest impact of the war on the region is that it has contributed to rising food and energy prices. Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilisers, and the disruptions to both countries’ exports have negatively impacted Southeast Asia.”
However, others take a bleaker view.
Asian Studies professor James Chin of the University of Tasmania said he’s sceptical whether the summit will have any impact at all.
“This is more a PR exercise than anything else,” he said. “And without all of the major powers, nobody believes any decision made at this Global Peace Summit will lead to anything.”
Additional reporting by Ericssen.
