The toughest part in trying to gauge the potential impact of the first presidential debate is trying to figure out which candidate needs this more. A month ago, the answer was obvious: President Joe Biden. His team wouldn’t have pushed to hold an earlier debate if it hadn’t come to the conclusion that it needed to do something to shake up this race before the fall.
But one conviction on 34 counts later and it’s not nearly as clear now which candidate needs this debate more. Why does that matter? Because the less a debate matters in the moment to a candidate, the more risk-averse said candidate will become in the debate itself.
Based on my conversations with smart folks on both sides of the aisle, both campaigns feel a quiet confidence about their standing going into the summer and this debate. That wasn’t the case with Biden world just a month ago. The small but noticeable shift toward Biden in various polls has given his campaign its first evidence that former President Donald Trump’s legal problems might be affecting his vote share. Toss in the recent positive data indicating a drop in violent crime across the country, as well as this durable economy, and one can see why Team Biden is as optimistic about winning re-election today as it has been in over a year.
But even as Biden has strengthened, so, too, has Trump. While he has taken a very small (and potentially significant) hit in the polls post-conviction, his massive fundraising haul in the last month has allowed him to level the spending playing field with Biden much earlier than the campaign had expected. The windfall of cash since the conviction is nothing short of stunning.
In fact, structurally, one could argue that Trump is in a stronger position overall in his campaign today than he was at this time in June 2020 (he was consistently trailing Biden in the polls) and in June 2016 (remember, he was struggling to get the GOP to unite around him, and Ted Cruz was still trying to force a second ballot at the convention). So compared to the last two cycles, Trump is stronger in the polls, and he has the party more unified around him and has raised more money than even he thought was possible.
And there is one other factor that could be in play that potentially makes this debate less consequential than the hype for it indicates: There is another scheduled debate.
In many conventional campaigns, first debates are often nicer and less contentious than later encounters. There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest is something that might not be in play here: not wanting to make a bad first impression.
And perhaps even that issue is a tad in play for both Biden and Trump. Both have stereotypes their campaigns would like to see them debunk with this first debate. Biden needs to show command of the issues and reasonable vigor for someone in his early 80s. Trump needs to show that he isn’t as unhinged as he can come across at his rallies and that he isn’t as focused on himself as it appears he has been since he lost the 2020 election.
For both candidates, engaging in an eye-gouging, expletive-filled shouting match would undermine their abilities to fix either perception.
Of course, both camps would love nothing more than for the post-debate conversation to be about the other candidate. Team Trump would love nothing more than for Biden’s age to become the dominant conversation, while Team Biden would love nothing more than for Trump’s erratic behavior to be the post-debate focal point.
I’m not totally naive here: The debate could end up devolving into an experience similar to the first Biden-Trump faceoff if either candidate senses he is losing and desperately needs to bait the other candidate into displaying an air of perceived weakness for all to see. But for Biden to bait Trump, Trump has to take the bait (and he might simply be that undisciplined to take it). But the risk for Biden is he could look more concerned about Trump and less concerned about the voters if he’s baiting him on the legal front.
And Trump has already seen the downside of being too mean-spirited and bully-ish on the debate stage against Biden during the last election.
So while both campaigns would love nothing more than for this debate to showcase the other candidate’s chief weaknesses, it takes a skilled debater to make that happen. And neither one of these candidates has shown that kind of nimbleness in the recent past.
Ironically, the best debates of Biden’s professional life were all in 2007 and 2008. And while those excellent debate performances meant nothing for him in the polls, as he was regularly treated as an also-ran candidate by many in the media (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were essentially scored separately), it did draw the attention of his future running mate and gave the Obama team confidence that he could be a worthy campaign partner.
Obviously, the tone and tenor of this debate are in the hands of the candidates, more so than the moderators. If each candidate chooses to try to bait his opponent and try to get him to expose his worst version of himself, the debate could devolve into an affair that turns off a lot of voters and even, perhaps, make them a bit Robert. F. Kennedy Jr.-curious.
But I’m betting on a slightly more subdued affair (at least subdued for Trump). Remember, both campaigns think they are on winning paths, and that matters in trying to figure out how desperate a candidate might be going into a debate.
Realistically, both candidates are in a position where they have more to lose than gain with this first debate, and because this isn’t the last scheduled debate, I’m betting on both candidates’ attempting to showcase the best versions of themselves, as the risk of being too negative and too nasty is too great this far out from the fall.
But then again, it’s Trump — so the chances aren’t zero that Captain Chaos makes an appearance.
(And if you know who Captain Chaos is, then you most likely have the words “Cannonball, Cannonball, Cannonball” echoing in your head. And if that’s the case, you’re welcome!)
Mic drop
One of the more important stipulations for the Biden campaign when it came to its debate negotiations was for a sponsor to be willing to “cut the mics” when a candidate goes over his allotted speaking time. Given the chaos of the first debate between Trump and Biden in 2020, one can understand why Biden, in particular, would want an enforcement mechanism like this.
But as frustrated as Biden clearly was on that stage with Trump back in 2020, he also ended up “winning” that first debate in the eyes of the voters because Trump’s behavior was so obnoxious. I’m not sure why the Biden campaign wants to help Trump look more disciplined and normal to a large national TV audience. Because if the Biden camp gets its way and Trump is forced to abide by the time limits and he decides he can’t be heard when the mics are off, then he’ll be presenting himself as a more reasonable version of himself.
The Biden campaign is trying to paint Trump as unhinged, and yet it is insisting CNN help make sure Trump doesn’t appear that way with its call to cut the mics.
Personally, I think one of the biggest mistakes mainstream media made in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots was to try to deplatform Trump, whether it was from mainstream social media or mainstream legacy media. It sent Trump to his own media ecosystem, which he has since built up into a much more powerful tool for propaganda today than anything he had four years ago. Trump’s antics always wear thin over time, but if you’re wondering why so many folks have memory-holed his crazy from the first term, it’s because he was rhetorically forced into exile in alternative corners of the information ecosystem.
There are two ways to deal with Trump: hand him more rhetorical rope or try to cancel him. Canceling him hasn’t worked, so perhaps trust the public more and let it decide whether if this is what it wants. As I argued last week, I’m convinced Trump’s behavior and chaotic leadership during Covid sealed his fate with voters.
But had he been edited or prevented from displaying his worst instincts for the largest number of eyeballs, maybe the voters wouldn’t have tuned him out. Bottom line: Trust the people to figure it out; don’t treat them like 5-year-old children.
This week on the Chuck ToddCast from NBC News, Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt (R) and Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther (D) join Chuck to discuss bipartisanship. Sign up to get new episodes of the Chuck ToddCast, every Wednesday and Friday, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
