With Modi’s absence, Delhi is telling its Chinese interlocutors that relations are under severe strain. Unless the Chinese roll back their aggressive posture in the Himalayas, the space for engagement between the two Asian neighbours is scarce. The SCO has a distinct security sentiment around it – unlike BRICS, which also includes Russia, China and India, but carries more of an economic ring.
STRATEGY, NOT CHEAP OIL
Media reports suggest that Modi will visit Russia in the second week of July. This trip will rankle many Western observers. Since the Ukraine war began, India’s purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe.
There is no doubt that India’s unallied position on Ukraine, along with US-led sanctions against Russia, has prompted Moscow to sell oil at cheaper rates to India. Delhi has consistently held an ambivalent position on the Ukraine conflict in calling for “dialogue and diplomacy”.
But this goes to strategy, not cheap oil. To paraphrase Jaishankar, the reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China. Or to put it another way, don’t go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts – China and Pakistan.
