JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE: Southeast Asian authorities must be vigilant in the aftermath of rebel forces seizing control over Syria from ousted prime minister Bashar al-Assad, say analysts.
Some experts warn that terrorism groups could exploit the ongoing power vacuum in the country and pose a security threat in the region.
“The situation in Syria is very volatile and can at any time descend into conflict and violence and this is something which terrorism groups have exploited in the past to gain new followers and support,” said Adhe Bhakti, executive director of Jakarta-based think-tank, Center for Radicalism and Deradicalization Studies (PAKAR) told CNA.
Meanwhile, a representative from Indonesia’s Counter-Terrorism Agency has urged for collaboration between national agencies, as well as neighbouring countries.
The civil war in Syria, which began more than a decade ago, paved the way for the formation of the Islamic State (IS) and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front.
Both groups have attracted hundreds of foreign fighters from Southeast Asian countries while their teachings have reportedly radicalised thousands of Muslims in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, inspiring some to launch deadly terrorist attacks in their respective countries.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the organisation which launched an offensive against the Assad regime last month, soon taking control over the capital Damascus and other important Syrian cities, was formed in 2017, when Al-Nusra, which was by then renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, merged with several other rebel factions to form the rebel coalition.
On Dec 17, Syrian state media reported that Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of the rebel coalition, said that all armed opposition groups in the country would be dissolved and rebel fighters would be brought under the authority of the Defence Ministry, as the new government worked to build a functioning state.
It was not clear how or when this would be achieved, or whether the competing armed factions would agree.
HTS denied that it still has links with any terror network. However, many countries and the UN Security Council have continued to designate the group as a terrorist organisation.
Meanwhile, IS, once a terror network capable of coordinating attacks through its many branches in Africa and Southeast Asia, has become a shadow of its former self.
In Syria, its fighters are scattered and holed up in small cells in the country’s eastern deserts ever since it suffered a string of defeats against Assad’s regime, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and other rebel groups. IS declared an end to its caliphate in Syria in 2019.
However, experts warned that IS still has the potential to make a comeback. And while some experts say the risk of a spread of extremism to Southeast Asia is low, others warn there is a chance that violence could spill over to the region.
“If there is further instability, conflict, and weak governance in Syria, the influence of IS might not be contained,” Aizat Shamsuddin, the founder of Initiate.my – an initiative to promote tolerance and prevent violence in Malaysia – told CNA.
IS, which aims to make Syria an Islamic caliphate with strict religious principles, has harshly criticised HTS’ appeals for peaceful coexistence with religious minorities and vowed not to accept any new government in Damascus unless IS itself was in charge.
Meanwhile, previous international support for Syria, currently under a transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir, could be dwindling. US President-elect Donald Trump has already announced that the country will not become involved in Syria when he comes into power for the second time in January.
He also vowed to withdraw all of the roughly 1,000 US troops on the ground in Syria – part of his broader isolationist stance in terms of foreign policy – which have been keeping IS fighters at bay.
If that happens, experts said that the ruling forces are pretty much on their own should IS decide to launch an offensive, particularly with many countries reluctant to forge a relationship with a potential HTS-led government which they consider a terrorist organisation.
