WAY TO CONSOLIDATE POWER?
If it materialises, the club would help Mr Prabowo consolidate his presidency, especially in the first and second years which are typically the most challenging, analysts say.
Although Mr Prabowo looks to have garnered support from enough parties to form a near-supermajority in parliament, the PDIP – which won the highest percentage of votes in February’s legislative elections – has not joined his coalition.
“As we know, PDIP is likely to be in the opposition and may disrupt Prabowo’s presidential agenda, creating a possible gridlock,” said Dr Ambang.
In addition, Ms Megawati and Mr Yudhoyono still hold influence and political power through leadership of their respective parties.
If Mr Prabowo can play the role of “peacemaker”, this will help him consolidate power, said Dr Adhi Priamarizki, a research fellow at the Indonesia programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
He suggested that initially, Mr Prabowo could consult one-on-one with his predecessors, who would offer counsel.
But there are concerns that a presidential club could ultimately lead to a political cartel that could hamper Indonesia’s democratic process.
In order to gather all the living ex-presidents in one forum, Mr Yoes said, Mr Prabowo must be willing to make some political concessions that could come at a price.
“The club will not only serve as an advisory body but also as a forum to ensure that Prabowo-Gibran’s policies are executed without strong parliamentary opposition,” Mr Yoes explained.
“Support from this presidential club will help Prabowo-Gibran secure symbolic and parliamentary legitimacy because, after all, the club members were, and are the most powerful politicians in Indonesia right now. They are all kingmakers.”
Dr Adhi agrees a presidential club could play a crucial role in the new government, although the arrangement is likely to be informal.
“The seniority and centrality of those former presidents mean they can influence decision-making within their own camp,” he noted.
On whether the forum will help Mr Widodo, also known as Jokowi, retain influence after he steps down as president, Dr Adhi said it is unlikely.
“Jokowi needs a more formal engagement to maintain his influence in the upcoming government. For now, he can rely on his son Gibran directly to preserve his agenda. Furthermore, the existence of other political figures in the presidential club means he is not the only power axis there,” said Dr Adhi.
Not all analysts believe Indonesia is ready to have a presidential club.
Comparisons with the US presidential club are “premature”, said Mr Yoes, because ex-American presidents comprising both Democrats and Republicans – with the exception of Mr Donald Trump – have managed to convene in a non-partisan manner.
“In Indonesia, politics is always personal,” he said.
