DAY IN COURT FOR BERSATU?
The matter could also be brought to the courts for deliberation, but analysts believe that this would be a long-drawn affair.
“Bersatu has this option but this also takes a long time. After the High Court, there would still be the Court of Appeal and Federal Court for consideration. This could take a minimum of two years,” said Dr Azmi.
He argued that even if the courts declared the seats to be vacant by the end of the proceedings, no by-election would have to be called because it would be less than two years to the expiration of Parliament.
According to Malaysian law, by-elections do not have to be held if a casual vacancy arises at a date which is less than two years from the date on which Parliament’s five–year mandate expires.
The Parliament’s current term expires in Dec 2027. The next general election would have to be called within 60 days of this expiry.
Instead, the government will elect a coordinator for these seats and give them allocations, said Dr Mazlan.
In the unlikely scenario that by-elections have to take place, Dr Mazlan foresees PN winning the Jeli and Gua Musang seats in Kelantan while losing the Labuan seat in Sabah.
“The green wave is still strong in the East Coast states,” he said.
He, however, believes that the Kuala Kangsar, Bukit Gantang and Tanjong Karang seats would see strong contests.
Based on the recent Kuala Kubu Bharu by-election held last month, Dr Mazlan said that Barisan Nasional (BN) stood a chance in the seats they had lost in the last general election.
“There has been a swing of Malay voters towards the unity government. Even two Malay-majority polling districts in Kuala Kubu Bharu were won by DAP. There is also a shift in votes by the army and police to the unity government,” he said.
“This means that there is some belief in the government and of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.”
UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had told local media that BN is prepared to wrest back the six federal parliamentary seats if they were declared vacant, noting that the seats used to belong to BN.
BY-ELECTIONS COULD WIDEN RIFT WITHIN PERIKATAN NASIONAL
Political analyst Wong Chin Huat from Sunway University wrote in an analysis that since the seven disobeyed instructions to withdraw their support for Mr Anwar, all of them ceased to be members of Bersatu.
He believed that five by-elections would have to be called – four for the federal parliamentary seats of Bukit Gantang, Kuala Kangsar, Labuan and Tanjong Karang as well as the Selat Kelang assembly seat.
He said the representatives were elected as members of Perikatan Nasional (PN).
“As their PN membership was derived from Bersatu membership, they now cease to be PN members, and the Speakers – Tan Sri Johari Abdul and Ng Swee Lim — should write to the Election Commission (EC) about their seat vacancy within 21 days receiving the notification from Bersatu,” he said.
He however said that no by-elections would have to be called in Jeli and Gua Musang as the representatives contested and were elected under the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia’s (PAS) banner. PAS is a component party within PN.
During the 15th general elections in November 2022, PN used the PAS logo in the East Coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu, while the PN logo was used in other states.
“Technically, the duo was not elected to Dewan Rakyat as members of Bersatu … Their seats cannot be vacated under Article 49A (anti-party hopping law). Ironically, since they cease to be members of Bersatu, they are now free to join any political party, which they can also leave anytime without losing their seats,” he said.
Meanwhile, Dr Mazlan said that in the event by-elections were called, problems in PN could worsen as PAS could demand to contest the seats that were won by Bersatu.
He pointed out that even PAS’s spiritual leader Hashim Jasin said recently that the party could contest the seats instead of Bersatu.
Dr Mazlan said: “This isn’t a right thing to do in the spirit of friendship. You can’t say something like that and (this) conveys a wrong message. Maybe they are disappointed that Bersatu can’t keep a hold of their own lawmakers.”
