While the concept lost some of its relevance at the end of the Cold War, it is back in the spotlight with the return of Donald Trump and the war in Ukraine.
Are spheres of influence making a comeback on the international stage?
The concept lost relevance at the end of the Cold War but seems to be regaining interest with the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the war in Ukraine.
“The prolonged crisis in Ukraine has really brought the concept back into global conversations about geopolitics and security. And more recently, the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States has accentuated this concept,“ Iain Ferguson, assistant professor at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow, told Euronews.
A sphere of influence refers to a geographical area that a power has unilaterally declared to be its exclusive space and over which it exercises political, economic and military control.
The concept was defined at the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885, at which the European colonial powers shared out Africa – without of course consulting any Africans on what they thought about being colonised.
However, it had already been shaping international relations long before, when the United States adopted the Monroe Doctrine in 1823, which condemned all European colonial intervention in Latin and North America.
Catalyst for conflict
It is in Europe’s interest to prevent the formation of exclusive spheres of influence, says Sven Biscop, director of the Europe in the World programme at the Egmont Institute.
“The immediate threat of a sphere of influence is that you cut others off from resources and trade. For Europe, this is a problem because we are an export economy and we have to import most of our resources”, the researcher explained.
In his view, a global race by the major powers to establish spheres of influence would increase geopolitical tensions and risk triggering conflict.
Russia, China and the United States are looking to gain ground. The US President has threatened to annex Greenland and Canada, but this is about territorial expansion, not spheres of influence, Biscop said.
For its part, “Russia is trying to establish an exclusive sphere of influence by military means and abroad”, he added.
“China is intelligently gaining a lot of influence in the world, but mainly through an economic and political strategy. But this could only become an exclusive sphere of influence if other players, including the European Union, abandoned these countries to China. But this is not the case,“ he stated.
According to Biscop, the reappearance of spheres of influence is therefore not being observed on a global scale.
“Many countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America are trying to maintain good relations with various major powers, including China, the United States and the EU. So, in a way, it’s exactly the opposite of exclusive spheres of influence.”
For the EU, enlargement is a way of promoting its values. But, in his view, it is not a sphere of influence.
ADVERTISEMENT“Of course, enlargement increases the European Union’s power and influence. But enlargement does not create a sphere of influence. If another state joins the Union, it is part of us. There should be a sphere around us. It would not be part of us,” he stated.
Spheres of influence “are back in the geopolitical conversation in the 21st century. But it is very difficult to see how this translates into concrete political reality on the ground,” Iain Ferguson concluded.
