As Patriots search for next coach, they must be honest about role of Bill Belichick remnants

Robert Kraft apologized.

The New England Patriots team owner said he felt “guilty.”

Because a year after expressing “that same conviction when I hired Bill Belichick,” Kraft’s completely changed his mind on Jerod Mayo.

The Patriots fired Mayo on Sunday just 355 days after introducing him as their head coach to succeed Belichick.

Monday, Kraft said the divorce had been on his mind since early December, amid a six-game losing streak.

“This whole situation evolved but I’d say over the last month, I went back and forth,” Kraft said. “In my life and my business, I make certain decisions I know when it’s right. And it just happened.”

Kraft felt right when he hired Belichick. He felt right when he hired Mayo. And now, how quickly does he feel right to fire Mayo.

The NFL and the Patriots knew that following one of the winningest coaches in league history would not be easy. Finding the next six-time Super Bowl champion was unlikely in a league that routinely turns over staffs in three to five years.

Kraft indicated logical reasons for making a head coaching change, beginning with the direction rather than the result of a 4-13 season. But flaws in his logic would later surface.

Because yes, the Patriots “regressed,” as Kraft said. But to assume Mayo and his staff could not dig out of the hole they created presupposes they created the hole. In reality, it preceded them.

Kraft deserves some credit for taking public accountability as his predetermined Belichick successor failed to reach his expectation. But the team owner also deserves blame for the unrealistic expectations he set – and his seeming unwillingness to acknowledge the root causes of some symptoms that ultimately cost Mayo a job.

“This whole situation is on me,” Kraft said. “I feel terrible for Jerod because I put him in an untenable situation. I know that he has all the tools as a head coach to be successful in the league.

“He just needed more time before taking the job.”

Or did the Patriots need more time before hiring him?

Belichick’s ghost continues to haunt Mayo, Patriots

Mayo’s coaching job, from remarks about calling his players “soft” to mixed messages about his Week 1 starting quarterback, revealed flaws. He knows that, and everyone in the organization knows that.

But assigning culpability for those flaws requires an honest look at the arrangement surrounding Mayo’s promotion.

Intentionally or not, Kraft acknowledged two ways in which Mayo was set up to fail.

Let’s start with the roster.

Even before the Patriots lost defensive tackle Christian Barmore to blood clots and traded linebacker Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons, their aggregate roster was widely considered one of the worst in the league. New England’s skill players did not threaten and its offensive line was shaky. Losing veteran center David Andrews only further doomed whichever quarterback was lining up behind this group.

A series of homegrown players were, well, not growing as desired. It’s not surprising that the Patriots finished third-worst in total offense and second-worst in scoring. Their defense was only slightly better, 22nd in both categories.

“Our drafts have not been good for a while,” Kraft said. “If you want to compete long term and be good in this league, you’ve got to have good drafts because those rookie contracts allow you to.”

Kraft offered this commentary in explaining why general manager Eliot Wolf and his staff will continue in their roles. But championing the evolution of New England’s talent grading system as indication of future improvement seemed to ignore how coaching success would correlate with roster improvement. Belichick’s roster control, and a series of poor drafts, hurt his successors. The list could go on – but even selecting quarterback Drake Maye third overall in 2024 is trending toward a more positive outcome than Belichick’s 2021 selection of Mac Jones 15th overall.

In 13 games, Maye completed 66.6% of passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while rushing for another 421 passes and two touchdowns. His production oscillated but his talent and poise gave the franchise reason for optimism.

The second flaw in the Patriots’ assessment of Mayo: their timeline.

Mayo deserves to be held responsible for all game results after he took over. But Kraft intimated his decision factored in more than just Mayo’s direct body of work. He took false hope when the Patriots upset the Cincinnati Bengals in the season opener, and expected repeat results to follow.

When they didn’t, Kraft experienced unwelcome deja vu.

“From my point of view, I thought we had a rough year [in 2023] and going through two years like that,” Kraft said. “Seeing where we were this year and especially the second half of the year, just made me feel we weren’t going in the right direction and I don’t want to go through this next year.”

Perhaps Mayo wouldn’t have found the answers even with more time. But ahead of hiring Mayo’s replacement, Kraft should understand he’s now coming off two four-win seasons and consider what that says about the foundation he has in place to win.

Vrabel, Johnson among possible next Patriots coaches

It’s easy to speculate whether the Patriots will chase Mike Vrabel.

The former Tennessee Titans head coach played 14 seasons with the Patriots, winning three Super Bowls in New England. Like Mayo, Kraft has a relationship with Vrabel already. Vrabel would arrive with six years of experience as a head coach to a team that clearly does not want to preach patience.

Kraft declined to comment on his interest in a possible reunion, saying that “there are some wonderful people that we’ve heard about” so he would wait to see all of his options.

Expect the Patriots to be attractive to a coach who has publicly stated his interest will most strongly hinge on team ownership structure and a plan at quarterback.

The Patriots have also requested to interview Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, whose creative scheme and extended success makes him the most highly coveted offensive candidate of this cycle.

Kraft said he wants a candidate whom players “can relate to and respond to.”

“They need to have a team around them that has product knowledge, in-game adjustments, knowing what their system is,” Kraft added. “I have to go out and find a coach who can get us back to the playoffs and hopefully championships.”

Patriots president Jonathan Kraft, senior personnel executive Alonzo Highsmith and Wolf will join Robert Kraft to lead the coaching search. Robert Kraft committed to giving his coach “big input” on the roster and coaching staff, as well as flexibility to max out salary-cap spending, or even exceed the spending as long as it balances over a three-year period.

Kraft expressed confidence that Mayo, who will turn 39 in February, will rebound from the firing.

“I believe in him,” Kraft said. “I really do believe he will go on and as he gets more experience, will be successful.”

And perhaps he’ll also get a clean slate, without the specter of Belichick continuing to haunt.