There are endless mock drafts on the internet, and there are no real penalties for being wrong.
When oddsmakers are wrong, they lose money for their bosses. That’s a big difference.
With the NFL Draft approaching on Thursday, it’s worth taking a look at BetMGM’s odds for each of the top 10 picks. The only rule for this exercise is a player can only be taken once; if a player is the favorite at multiple spots, we’ll go down to the next player in the odds for the pick. Here is what a mock draft would look like if we base it on the betting odds, with BetMGM’s odds for each pick in parentheses:
Here’s everyone’s free space on the bingo card. If you want to bet on Williams to go first, you’d have to bet $100 to win $1. We’ve seen some drama with the first pick in the days before the NFL Draft some years, but not this one.
The odds have shifted a bit back toward Daniels being the second pick, after a big line move for Drake Maye last week. Daniels went from -400 to -125 late last week, but that has rebounded some. Maye is +155, which indicates it’s still possible he goes to Washington. But Daniels is still the favorite.
J.J. McCarthy (+300 for the third pick) can’t totally be ruled out for the top three, but it does seem that whoever is left among Daniels and Maye will be the third pick. Whether the Patriots make that pick or trade down could be a question, but the odds have had Maye favored to be the third pick for a while.
It seems pretty clear that if the Cardinals stick with this pick it’ll be Harrison, the elite receiver prospect out of Ohio State. The event that could turn the draft on its head a bit would be the Cardinals trading the pick to one of the teams desperate to land a quarterback. McCarthy is +175 for the fourth pick.
This will be a fascinating pick. The Chargers could go in a number of different ways, which is why Nabers isn’t a big favorite like the players in the first four picks. Los Angeles could trade the pick (McCarthy is +250 for the fifth pick), or take elite offensive tackle Joe Alt (+450). Jim Harbaugh has talked often about the importance of offensive linemen. There are a lot of options for the Chargers, who could also use a star receiver with a couple of elite prospects (maybe three if a quarterback goes No. 4, Harrison is +250 for this pick) still available.
Nabers is the favorite for No. 6 as well, but he’s off the board in our exercise so we go to the second favorite. Odunze and Nabers are interchangeable on many mock draft boards and rankings, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go very close to each other. Both receivers seem likely to be top 10 picks.
If the Titans, who had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season, can land Alt at No. 7 they’ll be thrilled. Tennessee could also trade down considering their multiple needs, but Alt is a safe prospect at a high-value position and it’s also the Titans’ top position of need. Seems like a pretty easy pick if Alt falls to No. 7.
Whoa, a defensive player! There won’t be many of them in the first round. Actually, Turner and UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu are tied as the favorite to go No. 8, with each at +200 odds. We’ll break the tie and go with Turner. It does seem likely that the Falcons happily take an edge rusher in this spot, considering they have had the worst pass rush in the NFL over the past few seasons.
9. Chicago Bears: EDGE Jared Verse (+300)
Odunze is the favorite for this pick too, and if he’s available that would be a great pick for the Bears to go along with receivers D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. What a group for Williams to start with. But per our rules of this mock, Odunze is gone so the Bears go defense with Verse, an athletic edge rusher. A good defense can help a rookie quarterback too.
Outside of the top five picks, this could be the most popular fit on the mock drafts you’ll see. Bowers is a fantastic tight end prospect out of Georgia. The Jets haven’t got much out of their tight ends for a while, and it’s always good to have a dangerous tight end to pair with Aaron Rodgers. This pick seems almost too obvious.
It seems weird to have a top 10 without McCarthy in it, because some team will trade up for him. But the betting odds have spoken.
