The Triple Crown series for 3-year-old thoroughbreds has hit the homestretch.
The 156th running of the $2 million Belmont Stakes is Saturday at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. There won’t be a sweep of the Triple Crown but there will be intrigue with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness winner Seize the Gray meeting in their rubber match.
But bettors seem to be looking elsewhere. Sierra Leone opened as the morning line favorite at 9-5 odds while Todd Pletcher-trained Mindframe was the second choice at 7-2.
Coverage of Belmont Stakes Day begins on FS1 Saturday from 10:30 a.m. to 4 p.m., with FOX picking up the coverage until 7 p.m., before it returns to FS2 until 8:10 p.m.
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Here are some opinions on which horses will be the top finishers:
Belmont Stakes field (betting number, horse, trainer, jockey, odds)
1. Seize the Grey, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 8-1
2. Resilience, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 10-1
3. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-1
4. The Wine Steward, Mike Maker, Manny Franco, 15-1
5. Antiquarian, Todd Pletcher, John Velazauez, 12-1
6. Dornoch, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 15-1
7. Protective, Todd Pletcher, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
8. Honor Marie, Whit Beckman, Florent Geroux, 12-1
9. Sierra Leone, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 9-5
10. Mindframe, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2
Brisnet past performances via Horse Racing Nation
Belmont Stakes selections
Ken Jordan, five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series
6. Dornoch – Resented being rated in Blue Grass and may have had the worsttrip of all in the Kentucky Derby. The thinking here is that he willattend the pace set by Seize the Grey and Mindframe, then show somefinish in the stretch. Slight edge over second choice.
2. Resilience – Rallied wide into the hot Derby pace, set up for a top performance by Bill Mott
9. Sierra Leone – When a barn known for being meticulous says a new bit is the answer after five races, be skeptical at the windows.
3. Mystik Dan – Derby hero may not get a setup where he can duplicate that powerful rain run.
Swift Hitter, New Jerseyan and horse racing commentator with 14,000 followers on X.
9. Sierra Leone – Most talented horse in race. Chad Brown changed bits and that will help horse run a straight path. Fully expect a solid enough pace. Strictly the horse to beat. If 8/5 odds, consider it a gift.
3. Mystik Dan – Derby winner and runner up in Preakness, will have to settle for second as Sierra Leone is fresh and waiting for ’em.
6. Dornoch – Longshot play to round out trifecta. If left alone on lead, can be dangerous
Sean Nolan, 17-time National Handicapping Championship qualifier with four top 20 finishes, including a second place
Check back soon for Sean’s picks.
Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press sportswriter
9. Sierra Leone – The best closer in the race is two noses away from being unbeaten and should get enough pace to run into. If he can avoid lugging in severely – a habit which cost him in both his defeats and should have gotten him disqualified to third in the Kentucky Derby – he should run them down late and give trainer Chad Brown his first Belmont winner.
2. Resilience – He ran a sneaky good race in the Derby, when he finished sixth. Despite racing wide the whole way after breaking from the No. 18 post and making an early move into a pace that collapsed, he was in contention at the top of stretch before tiring. He could get a nice trip just off the pace here.
10. Mindframe – The Todd Pletcher-trainee may be the most talented horse in the race. He’s won his first two starts by a combined 21 1/4 lengths and the 103 Beyer Speed Figure he recorded in his debut is the highest Beyer in the field. Mindframe outworked Kentucky Derby favorite and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Fierceness two weeks ago. Fierceness is now being pointed to the Haskell Stakes July 20 at Monmouth Park, along with the Bob Baffert-trained Muth. This is a major step up in class, though, for Mindframe.
8. Honor Marie – He was one of the wise guy horses going into the Derby, and then never had a chance with a nightmare trip. It was probably the worst trip any of the 20 horses in the race had. He also could get enough pace to run into and gets a significant rider change due to injury to Florent Geroux.
Greg Giombarrese, Director of Communications, Jersey Shore BlueClaws
9. Sierra Leone – The Kentucky Derby runner-up (though he should have been disqualified to third) always fires no matter the race and no matter the pace. His race in the Risen Star was arguably the best prep race performance by anyone and he certainly ran well in the Derby. He’ll be coming late and should excel at the distance.
8. Honor Marie – He lost his chance in the Derby two seconds after the gate opened. He was pin-balled around at the start and jostled for the first furlong. He was then stuck in behind horses into the lane and had to shift way out in the last 3/16ths. He was the wise-guy horse going into the Derby, and may well produce his best in this race at a very square price.
2. Resilience – He ran a sneaky-good race in the Derby. First, being drawn in post 18 did him no favors. He then was hung wide the whole way and made a very early move into a very fast pace before understandably tiring late. He should be able to sit closer to the pace here and save ground. He could impact things at a price.
3. Mystik Dan – The Derby winner has run quite well in the first two Triple Crown races and he projects to get another very good trip from just off the pace. We will see if he can bring his “A” game for the third time in five weeks.
Bob Jordan, Asbury Park Press sports editor
2. Resilience – This one from Mott is on a cycle upswing and can get the right trip.
4. The Wine Steward – Extra value with this one – Saez is jumping off to stick with Dornoch, leaving this ride vacant until a couple of days ago when Manny Franco got the call.
10. Mindframe – Talented but moving from nw1x to winning the Test of Champions? Not that good but will have a big say.
6. Dornoch – Logical to include in exotics.
9. Sierra Leone – A big prep and strong Derby but the math just doesn’t feel right with five weeks off. Though in the last 20 editions of the Belmont Stakes we’ve had 10 winners who went straight from the Derby to the Belmont without a start in between
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Belmont Stakes betting guide: Expert picks, analysis, past performances
