Very few people expected the Denver Broncos to be in the playoffs this season. There was plenty of skepticism about the Buffalo Bills too.
The Bills proved that as long as Josh Allen is in his prime, they’ll be Super Bowl contenders. Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs in the offseason and Allen responded with a fantastic season that might end up getting him his first NFL MVP award. The Bills easily won the AFC East.
The Broncos hadn’t made the playoffs since the 2015 season and had a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. But Nix played very well, the Broncos’ defense was among the best in the NFL and Denver broke its playoff drought.
The matchup
No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Highmark Stadium
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
How to watch Broncos at Bills
The game will be broadcast by CBS and can also be streamed on Paramount+.
Betting odds
The Bills are 9-point favorites at BetMGM. That’s the second-largest spread of wild-card weekend, with only the Ravens being bigger favorites. The total is 47 points.
X factor
The Broncos’ pass rush is the strength of the team. Denver led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than any other. On the flip side the Bills had just 14 sacks allowed, which was eight fewer than any other team. Zach Allen had an outstanding season and deserved to make the Pro Bowl. Allen had 8.5 sacks and led all NFL interior linemen with 65 quarterback pressures, via Next Gen Stats. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper combined for 24 sacks off the edge. If the Broncos are going to pull off an upset, it will be because they can do what no other team could this season: sack Josh Allen.
How the Broncos can win
Bo Nix wasn’t immune to turnovers, but he did have 10 games this season in which he didn’t throw an interception. It’s very hard to believe the Broncos can win if they don’t win the turnover battle. This is still a rookie quarterback in his first playoff start in a tough road environment.
Nix has had an excellent season. If he can make some plays and take care of the ball, the Broncos have the defense to keep them in the game. A clean sheet from Nix in the turnover category is where Denver’s upset bid has to start.
How the Bills can win
There has been a knock on the Bills through the years that they rely too much on Josh Allen to do everything. That works for the Bills. This was another season in which there were questions about Allen’s supporting cast but he accounted for 40 touchdowns and led the Bills to an easy division title. The Broncos’ defense won’t make it easy on Allen, but if he plays his normal game then the Bills should advance to the divisional round.
Prediction
The Broncos have been tough all season, even on the road. They beat the Buccaneers. They were a blocked field goal from beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They led the Chargers at halftime on the road and took the Bengals to overtime. It doesn’t seem like a team that will be intimidated by playing at Buffalo, even with a rookie quarterback. The Bills have been very good all season and should win, but Denver has the ingredients to put a scare into Buffalo and keep it close until the end. Bills 26, Broncos 21
