As clashes escalate along Myanmar’s northern border, Chinese Premier Li Qiang this week reaffirmed Beijing’s support for Myanmar’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
The comment came Wednesday following a sideline meeting with the embattled junta leader at the November 6-7 Greater Mekong Subregion Summit in Kunming, in China’s southern Yunan province, according to a Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry statement issued the same day.
During the meeting, Li pledged China’s commitment to regional stability, stressing the importance of trade and border security, even as key crossings remain closed because of heightened conflict.
He assured Myanmar of China’s support for “a development path suited to its national conditions,” promising “ongoing cooperation to advance Myanmar’s political reconciliation and transformation,” according to the statement.
The statement went on to say that Li had “underscored China’s commitment to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative,” viewing it as a key project for both nations.
The so-called CMEC links the Chinese province of Yunnan with economic hubs in Myanmar and give China access to the India Ocean through a series of infrastructure projects.
In the meeting, Li “expressed his hope that Myanmar would ensure the security of Chinese personnel, institutions and projects” within its borders, while calling for greater cooperation in combating cross-border problems such as online gambling and telecom fraud.
Min Aung Hlaing, in turn, expressed gratitude, the Foreign Ministry stated, for China’s assistance in development, pledging to “protect Chinese investments within Myanmar” as both countries approach the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
Opposition criticizes visit to China
Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government has expressed concern over Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to China, describing it as an attempt by the military regime to gain legitimacy and financial support.
Speaking to VOA by phone on Wednesday, Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the NUG President’s Office, described the visit as “an effort to secure recognition and economic support for a regime that lacks legitimacy.”
He further stated that Min Aung Hlaing has “hindered Myanmar’s progress and stability,” attributing recent economic struggles to the junta’s actions.
The NUG called on China to reconsider its engagement with the junta, with Kyaw Zaw saying that “backing this regime could pose risks to regional stability and negatively impact civilians who rely on cross-border trade for their livelihoods.”
China’s strategic calculations
Myanmar analyst and former Communist Party of Burma member Than Soe Naing discussed China’s relationship with Myanmar’s junta by phone with VOA on Wednesday.
“China never directly blamed Min Aung Hlaing for the coup,” he said, although Beijing saw the arrests of Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar’s ousted civilian government, and the dissolution of her National League for Democracy party as missteps.
“Min Aung Hlaing has mishandled the military, politics and economy,” prompting China to explore alternatives.
In June, China invited the leader of an earlier Myanmar military government, General Thein Sein, to an event with Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, sparking speculation that China might see Thein Sein as the leader of a future transitional government.
Regional analysts described the invitation as a strategic signal.
Thein Sein presided over earlier reforms and peacefully handed over power to Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, or NLD, after a 2015 election. He is seen as a figure who might be trusted to lead a potential transitional government if Myanmar moves toward reconciliation.
However, Min Aung Hlaing’s invitation to the Mekong Summit signals China’s current backing, given his influence and control of the military, Than Soe Naing said.
“China acknowledges Min Aung Hlaing’s support within the military,” he said, “while Aung San Suu Kyi lacks armed backing. Inviting him to Yunnan, not Beijing, allows China to show international goodwill from a neutral location.”
While Aung San Suu Kyi is currently in jail and lacks the formal support of the military, revolutionary forces who are aligned with the NUG support her.
Support for infrastructure
Intense battles in northern Shan state involving the Three Brotherhood Alliance — a coalition of ethnic armed groups made up of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army — are now spreading toward central Myanmar, revealing Min Aung Hlaing’s weakened control, he said.
“China sees an opportunity to influence the military by supporting it,” Than Soe Naing said, “believing this strengthens its strategic ally.”
He also noted China’s economic interests, including the Myitsone dam project in Kachin State, suspended in 2010.
“If talks succeed, Min Aung Hlaing may be invited to Beijing,” linking China’s support for the junta to advancing key infrastructure projects.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance has been the strongest force against the junta. Last year, these groups launched Operation 1027, a coordinated offensive aimed at junta forces in northern Myanmar, which borders China, on October 27.
China has increasingly assumed the role of mediator, facilitating a series of cease-fire meetings between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in Kunming — a move underscoring Beijing’s vested interest in regional stability and the security of its cross-border trade routes. However, these efforts have so far been unsuccessful and fighting in the region has escalated.
China’s border trade restrictions
China, long critical of Western sanctions, has imposed restrictions along the border, cutting off vital supplies such as food and medicine. Analysts believe the move aims to pressure the armed resistance groups while securing China’s regional interests.
Border crossings into northern Shan and Kachin states — areas heavily influenced by opposition ethnic groups — have been closed, stalling trade.
While Beijing has not publicly explained the closures, Chinese media have cited security concerns around key infrastructure, including the China-Myanmar oil pipeline.
Observers see this as a calculated Chinese effort to weaken resistance forces and strengthen the Myanmar junta.
Ta’ang National Liberation Army spokesperson Lway Yay Oo confirmed to VOA by phone that China’s trade restrictions have cut supplies to the TNLA and other allied ethnic armed groups.
“Border trade is still banned,” she said, adding that “only food and clothing” have been allowed into Myanmar since October 25. Restrictions now also block goods from reaching areas controlled by the United Wa State Army, another armed ethnic group, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, leading to shortages, particularly of medicine.
When asked about China’s motive, she stated, “China is pressuring us to halt military operations.” To support affected areas, she said, “We’re providing tax exemptions on food, fuel and construction materials.”
Although fighting has paused, Lway Yay Oo refused to say whether this is due to China’s pressure.
“Airstrikes by the junta are still ongoing,” she said, adding that China has not responded to calls for humanitarian aid.
Analyst Than Soe Naing said China wants the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance “to pull back and allow junta forces to reestablish control.”
Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the NUG President Office, said “Myanmar’s instability stems from the military’s violent actions that disrupt economic growth,” warning that restrictive border policies could significantly affect civilians dependent on cross-border trade.
