BEIJING: China’s economy likely expanded at its slowest pace this year, according to an AFP survey ahead of data on Friday (Oct 18), as authorities struggle to reignite consumption amid a chronic debt crisis in the property sector.
Officials have in recent weeks unveiled a string of measures to reignite the world’s number-two economy and bring an end to years of depressed business activity with an eye to achieving five per cent annual growth.
But after a blistering market rally fuelled by hopes for a long-awaited “bazooka stimulus”, optimism has waned as authorities refrained from providing a specific figure for the bailout or fleshing out any of the pledges.
Officials on Friday will unveil figures for the third quarter, with analysts polled by AFP forecasting the economy to have grown 4.5 per cent – having expanded 4.7 per cent in the previous three months and 5.3 per cent in January to March.
“China’s economy got a shot in the arm in September,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, referring to the stimulus, but added that investors have been left “disappointed” by the lack of further announcements.
Beijing in September revealed a raft of measures to funnel cash into the economy including a string of rate cuts and loosened restrictions on home-buying.
But those supports “won’t be enough” to correct woes in the property market – once a key driving force in the Chinese economy, Murphy Cruise warned.
Analysts surveyed by AFP predict 4.9 per cent overall growth in 2024 – even worse than last year, which was the weakest in decades, outside of COVID-19.
Beijing has said it has “full confidence” that it will reach its target this year and revive the economy but analysts say officials must go further and inject new money before the end of the year.
The need for help has been highlighted by a long-running series of data releases pointing to sluggish consumer activity, tepid inflation, minimal growth in imports and surging youth unemployment.
