China’s new ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wenbin, arrived in early July with a reputation as a highly experienced and combative diplomat in what is seen as the first move in a coming battle for influence between superpowers in the Southeast Asian nation.
The United States and Australia are expected to follow soon with their own new envoys who are seasoned in China relations. The personnel moves come less than a year into the first term of Prime Minister Hun Manet, a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and Cambodia’s first new prime minister in decades.
Hun Manet is the son of Cambodia’s longtime leader Hun Sen and part of a new generation of politicians from the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, which has been in power for more than 40 years. Diplomats are waiting to see whether he will adjust his country’s “ironclad friendship” established with China by his father.
At present, China is Cambodia’s largest trading partner and a significant source of foreign investment and development assistance. China wants to deepen those ties through its Belt and Road Initiative and other cooperative frameworks.
Potentially standing in the way of that goal are concerns in Cambodia about an over-reliance on China, an effort by Phnom Penh to balance relations with the West, and public concerns about corruption and Chinese investments primarily benefiting the elite.
Wang is a former Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson and former ambassador to Tunisia, with more than 30 years of diplomatic experience, according to China Daily. He is one of what China describes as a new breed of combative “wolf warrior” diplomats.
With his extensive experience, analysts believe Wang will be able to sustain the close ties between China and Cambodia or even increase Beijing’s influence with the Phnom Penh government and the region.
Seng Vanly, a doctoral candidate in international relations at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, said Wang’s wealth of experience could make him more influential than his predecessors.
“Because of his reputation as a spokesperson and his articulation talent, as well as his responses, he is well-recognized among Chinese diplomats and around the world who see him as strongly responding to the enemy countries or the West, such as the United States, on issues relating to China’s rise, China’s aggressions, whether in the South China Sea or its conflict with Taiwan,” he told VOA Khmer via Telegram.
Seng emphasized that Western countries such as Australia and the United States are expected to send their own new ambassadors with China expertise to Cambodia.
However, he said he believes that Wang can offer substantial benefits to Cambodia while holding his own in any diplomatic battles with rival countries.
The U.S, meanwhile, is awaiting the final confirmation by the U.S. Senate of its next ambassador to Cambodia, according to a U.S. Embassy spokesperson in Phnom Penh. He is Robert Forden, a career diplomat who has held the second-ranking position at the U.S. missions in both Beijing and Taipei and was charge d’affaires at the Beijing embassy from 2020 to 2021.
Australia, for its part, this month named its next ambassador to Phnom Penh as Derek Yip, who has held two postings to Beijing and served most recently as assistant secretary of the Foreign Ministry’s East Asia political branch.
According to Em Sovannara, a political science professor at the University of Cambodia in Phnom Penh, the appointment of capable, senior diplomats from both superpowers could make Cambodia a diplomatic battleground on issues such as the South China Sea, where China has competing territorial claims with several of Phnom Penh’s fellow ASEAN members.
The U.S. is also concerned about Chinese involvement in Cambodia’s controversial Ream naval base.
Wang’s arrival also coincided with a visit to Cambodia in early July by Yoko Kamikawa, the foreign affairs minister of Japan. Analysts told VOA Khmer that strengthening relations with Japan could reduce Chinese influence in Cambodia and lead to a more balanced approach to foreign relations.
“By diversifying Cambodia’s partners, it could, to some extent, relieve the pressure and expectation that Phnom Penh has on Beijing to live up to its name as an economic partner,” said Ek Bunly, a research fellow at the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies.
At the same time, he said, “Cambodia would be in total vulnerability should China decide to weaponize its economic domination in Cambodia for Beijing’s political goal in the future.”
According to Bunly, Cambodia has become a significant player in the U.S.-China rivalry in the region. Other elements of that rivalry include the rise of U.S.-led groups such as AUKUS, the Quad, and NATO’s forthcoming IP4 initiative in the Indo-Pacific, all of which are seen as countering China’s agenda.
“Thus, having and maintaining a strong partner like Cambodia in the Indo-Pacific region provides Beijing with critical geopolitical leverage,” he said.
In its latest move to demonstrate its ironclad ties with China, the Cambodian government named a 50-kilometer section of Phnom Penh’s newly constructed third ring road as Xi Jinping Boulevard. Construction of the road cost about $270 million and was partly paid for with concessional Chinese lending.
“The naming of Xi Jinping Boulevard is symbolic of the Cambodia-China friendship that has reached the top,” government spokesperson Bona told VOA via WhatsApp. “And both countries strive well for the good relationship as Cambodia gets much benefits.”
Bunly said that the many China-funded infrastructure projects in Cambodia are fruits of Beijing’s continued commitment to Phnom Penh. However, he added, it remains to be seen if Wang’s high-profile background can bring back much-needed Chinese tourism and investment in Cambodia’s struggling post-COVID-19 economy.
Even if Wang is very capable, Bunly said, bringing back Chinese investment is not necessarily within his control and partly depends on China’s own economic conditions. So far China’s slow post-COVID recovery has prevented the return of significant Chinese investment and tourists to Cambodia after COVID.
