Where predecessor Joe Biden put real effort into this traditionally challenging issue, Trump will make no effort to mediate Japanese-South Korean disputes. He had not in his first term. Instead, he took sides in the dispute.
He tilted toward Japan, whose prime minister at the time, Shinzo Abe, adroitly flattered Trump and won him over. Abe even imposed trade sanctions on South Korea in 2019, as retaliation over a Korean court order for Japanese firms to pay compensation to victims of wartime forced labour. The US did not intervene.
The trade dispute is widely considered to be the lowest point in Japan-South Korea relations since diplomatic normalisation in 1965.
In contrast, South Korea’s contemporaneous president, Moon Jae-in often clashed with Trump, trading barbs in the media. When Trump sought a deal with North Korea in 2018-19, he cut Moon out of the negotiations. Trump will likely bring this style back into office.
DRIFTING AWAY FROM EAST ASIA ALLIES
In short, expect trilateral relations to be poor in the coming years, just like during Trump’s first term.
