NOT ALL GLOOM AND DOOM
The prevailing sentiment among China watchers is that Trump 2.0 will worsen bilateral ties between the world’s two largest economies, already at a historic low. Trump has declared in recent interviews that he would consider even higher tariffs on Chinese imports if elected.
The concern is understandable, but a potential Trump presidency may not be all gloom and doom for bilateral ties, from a Chinese point of view.
First of all, the Chinese leadership has long concluded that whoever enters the White House next, Trump or Kamala Harris, it is unlikely to lead to any notable improvement in ties. The best they can hope for is to stabilise the relationship when China wants to focus on growing the economy at home.
In many ways, Trump’s signature transactional approach to US leadership in international affairs could work in China’s favour geopolitically. In a recent interview, Trump reaffirmed his long-held scepticism over defending Taiwan in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland.
Trump 2.0 could help dial down the temperature over the Taiwan issue, which Beijing considers the most important red line in bilateral ties.
Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports could deal a major blow to China’s exports and manufacturing, but it should be read in the global context that he would go after everyone that runs a trade surplus with the US, including the European Union.
Furthermore, his repeated warnings to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to increase their defence spending – Trump advisers have reportedly floated the idea of demanding an increase in spending to 3 per cent of gross domestic product, a higher target than they had agreed to – would heighten tensions between Washington and these European nations.
All this could provide a much-needed opportunity for China to disrupt the united Western front that Washington has cobbled together to resist the perceived rising and assertive influence of Beijing.
