Despite the recent uptick in cross-border bombardments between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, analysts say both foes may not want it to escalate their conflict given the tremendous cost to both countries — both militarily, materially and economically.
Tens of thousands of people on either side of the Lebanon-Israel border have been displaced as attacks, which began on October 8 between Israel and Hezbollah as part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” have intensified. Hezbollah has put pressure on Israel’s northern border as Israeli forces battle Hamas in the south.
Analyst Nicholas Heras of the Washington-based New Lines Institute told VOA that despite Hezbollah and Israel stepping up their attacks in recent weeks, limits are maintained for now. Hezbollah, he said, is better armed than the Lebanese military.
“On both sides of the border, civilian populations have been directly affected by this really tenuous escalation/de-escalation pattern between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran,” Heras said. “There is a sense from both sides of the border that there is unfinished business. There is recognition that something big could very well happen as a result of the atmosphere right now. Both sides have tremendous pause in doing that because it would be in many ways a cataclysmic conflict.”
Lebanon is fragile. A crippling economic crisis has gripped the tiny Mediterranean nation since 2019, and it is strained further by hosting more than 1 million Syrian refugees.
The United Nation’s World Food Program provides aid to more than 158,000 people in Lebanon who are affected by war, but warns that should conditions worsen, it cannot supply more. Lebanese authorities say there has been more than $1.5 billion in damages so far from cross-border hostilities.
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has warned that either a diplomatic agreement or a military solution was required for Israeli residents, who have fled the border region, to return home in the north.
Lebanese authorities say more than 350 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since the beginning of hostilities October 8; the majority being militants, while some 73 civilians have been killed. Meanwhile, Israel says some 14 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed in militant attacks.
Lebanese analyst Dania Koleilat Khatib told VOA that the United States and France have tried diplomacy, urging Hezbollah to pull back from the border and see more international monitors posted. But Hezbollah has so far resisted, said Khatib, who is the president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building in Beirut.
“Israel wants a strong guarantee, Khatib said. “They cannot re-run the risk of having something like October 7. Hezbollah is cornered. They don’t want war. If they are cornered, they will go to war. That’s why it’s the time for diplomacy. To find a buffer that will give assurances to both sides.”
New Lines analyst Heras warns of the high stakes should war erupt.
“The IDF — Israel Defense Forces — has made it very clear that in a future war, that it would be near total destruction anywhere in Lebanon that Hezbollah has a presence,” Heras said.
Heras said Israel knows that Iran has armed Hezbollah with hundreds of thousands of weapons, including precision-guided missiles. He said the armaments could potentially wreak material and “economic catastrophic destruction inside Israel.”
Hezbollah would not just allow the Israeli military to have freedom of movement inside Lebanon, he said, but the Iran-backed group would, in fact, try to bring the war into Israel itself.
Other analysts say Hezbollah risks losing support if Lebanese civilians continue to suffer the attacks or if public confidence is undermined. Already, many Lebanese have expressed resentment over being dragged into a conflict with Israel.
