“Death, taxes and the ‘Stros in the West.”
Over the past eight seasons, that phrase has become something of a rallying cry for the Houston Astros and their fans. For a franchise that has reached the ALCS every season since 2017 and won the division every full season since that same year, it’s a warranted superiority complex. There’s a sense of invincibility, continually reinforced by late-October baseball. With each passing year, with each additional “Houston Astros AL West Champions” banner raised to the rafters of Minute Maid Park, “Death, taxes and the ‘Stros in the West” only grows more powerful.
And this year, despite an early-season skid, looks no different.
On Wednesday, the Astros wrapped up an 8-1 road trip with an extra-innings victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. They tallied just two hits but won anyway. It was their eighth consecutive victory. Since May 1, Houston has a 55-36 record, best in MLB. The Astros are now three games up in the AL West.
Much of that work has been done with arguably the club’s best hitter and best pitcher on the injured list. All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker has been sidelined by a shin contusion since June 3, while future Hall of Fame hurler Justin Verlander last appeared in a big-league game on June 9. He has made two rehab starts and is expected back soon.
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Meanwhile, the division-rival Mariners, who once held a 10-game lead atop the AL West, have been a masterclass in disaster, a capsizing boat with a leaky faucet. Seattle has a 20-27 record since June 18; the historically horrendous Chicago White Sox are the only AL team with a worse mark over that span. A gut-wrenching, three-game sweep at the hands of the middling Detroit Tigers this week pushed Seattle’s division deficit to three games. So while there is ample runway for another twist in the tale, barring a major surprise, “Death, taxes and the ‘Stros in the West” will ring out for another year.
But it didn’t always feel that way. Rewind to the end of April, and there were signs of an empire in decay.
Out of the gate, Houston face-planted. With a bevy of injuries decimating their pitching staff, the Astros’ playoff odds plummeted by more than 40% in just a month. Linchpin third baseman Alex Bregman was an offensive horror show. A highly touted bullpen, reinforced by the big-money, free-agent addition of closer Josh Hader, finished April with a 4.90 ERA.
On May 8, the Astros — the Houston MFing Astros — had a 12-24 record through their first 36 games. More concerning than the record or the daunting figure in the “games back” column was just how vulnerable the Astros looked. People whispered about a changing of the guard, the end of an era.
Oh, the difference a summer makes.
The Astros have slowly pulled themselves up from the muck. Bregman, who has an .860 OPS since June 1, rediscovered his stroke. Second-year backstop Yainer Díaz, to whom Houston handed the catching keys over the winter, rebounded from a tough offensive start. The rotation, propelled by breakouts from Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco, found its footing. And the bullpen, after a tumultuous April, has a 3.15 ERA since May 1, the third-best mark in baseball. Altogether, it was enough to convince GM Dana Brown and his front office that a polarizing deadline deal for southpaw starter Yusei Kikuchi was worth the prospect price. And Kikuchi has been quite good in his three starts since the move, with the Astros optimizing his pitch mix and seeing immediate results.
Happy days aside, these Astros remain flawed, perhaps more flawed than any previous incarnation during their sparkling run. The bottom of the lineup — which is usually some combo of Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Jon Singleton and Chas McCormick — remains relatively unimposing. Tucker, whose return would give the lineup more length, has yet to play in a rehab game. And while the rotation beyond Framber Valdez and a returning Verlander has performed admirably, it remains completely untested in the cauldron of October. Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Kikuchi have a combined zero postseason starts. Verlander has 37; a full return to health for him is crucial.
But those are first-place problems. Things are good in Houston right now. And when things were at their nadir, few on the Astros blinked. Stalwarts such as Bregman, José Altuve and Yordan Álvarez had been around long enough to remain unfazed. They were the team’s ballast, while first-year manager Joe Espada, who has been on the coaching staff since 2018, kept the cliches a’coming.
“We have never started a season like this, but we have been through some really tough stretches throughout seasons here,” he told reporters during an April 27 media session before the club’s two-game series in Mexico City. “I think we have a group of guys that understand that panic — there’s no room for panic in our clubhouse.
“Once we figure some stuff out, as a group, we’ll get going here. One thing that I do respect and love about our guys is their ability to stay together, their ability to stay positive, the ability to fight through this. It’s early in the season, and I have faith in this group that we’ll get through this.”
Every team with postseason aspirations operates with some level of irrational self-confidence. That’s what platitudes are for. Each loss is an aberration; each win is proof of concept. The season, which is long, will tell the truth after the dust settles. There’s never a reason to panic. Staying the course, staying steady, is always the best option.
Many teams say that, but few believe it deeply, and none more than the Astros.
These Altuve-Bregman-Álvarez-Verlander Astros can point across the canyon, rev their motorbike and take flight with an unshakable faith that they will land safely on the other side. That’s how things have gone so many times before — why would this season be any different? Success breeds confidence, and confidence, in turn, breeds success.
Such is the imposing force of a sporting dynasty.
