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Aircraft delivery delays by Airbus and Boeing are forcing airlines to fly older, less fuel-efficient planes for longer, slowing the industry’s progress on curbing harmful carbon emissions.
Increased fuel efficiency from new aircraft is among the measures being pursued by the aviation industry as it seeks to meet its pledge to reach net zero by 2050. But more than two years since the return of air travel following the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and labour shortages continue to hamper production of planes.
With both Airbus and Boeing expected to announce a flurry of new airline orders at this week’s Farnborough air show, concerns are rising that the gap between demand and supply could slow the industry’s progress on reducing emissions through to the end of the decade.
“The cumulative deficit of deliveries is going to stay through to 2028 at least,” said Rob Morris, head of Cirium’s consultancy business Ascend.
This “does mean that airlines are keeping planes flying for longer, with mid-life and older aircraft [staying] in service”, he added.
Flying accounts for about 2 per cent of global energy-related emissions. Air traffic has returned close to pre-pandemic levels by the end of last year. The industry believes it can reach net zero by 2050 while still growing, and has outlined a range of measures to cut its net emissions, including switching to sustainable aviation fuel, newer aircraft and carbon offsets.
Under the European industry’s net zero road map, new but still conventionally powered aircraft are responsible for nearly a fifth of the sector’s emissions reductions by 2050. Planes with new generation engines, such as the A320neo, burn about 15 per cent less fuel and emit 15 per cent less carbon dioxide than the prior generation of aircraft.
Even when there is a “significant delay of new deliveries, airlines’ growth plans don’t change”, said Nikhil Sachdeva, global lead for sustainable aviation at consultants Roland Berger. Instead, airlines end up with a “double whammy of delayed retirements and older leased aircraft” as they try to keep their growth commitments, he added.
Both Airbus and Boeing will deliver fewer aircraft than originally planned this year. The European plane maker said last month it would deliver “around 770” commercial aircraft this year, down from a previous target of 800.
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Boeing’s production of its 737 Max aircraft has been capped at no more than 38 per month by US aviation regulators as the company grapples with manufacturing and quality issues following the mid-air blowout of a section of one of its aircraft in January. The US plane maker delivered 44 commercial aircraft in June — a 27 per cent drop from a year ago.
Cirium’s Morris said the biggest delivery deficit will come next year; the consultancy has revised its previous forecast that 32 per cent of all narrow-body aircraft in service will be powered by new-generation engines down to 27 per cent.
This would have “a negative impact on fleet efficiency in CO₂ and economic terms”, he said, but added that by 2030, the delivery deficit would disappear and 55 per cent of the global narrow-body fleet will be new generation planes.
Airline executives are frustrated by the widespread delivery delays, but believe it is too early to determine at what stage the lack of new aircraft will begin to materially knock the net zero road map off course. “It is certainly a risk if there is a major and persistent blockage in deliveries,” one said.
Some industry experts, however, play down the impact more fuel efficient aircraft will have on the industry’s emissions in the longer term. Sash Tusa, analyst at Agency Partners, pointed out the industry’s projected average traffic growth of more than 3 per cent a year and the associated rise in emissions would exceed any emission savings from more fuel-efficient aircraft.
In the long term, aviation’s big bet to reduce emissions remains sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Made from a range of non-fossil fuel sources, including waste cooking oil and crops, SAF can emit 70 per cent less CO₂ than conventional jet fuel.
Critics of SAF question the fuel as a viable option for the industry in reducing emissions. Very little of it is produced, and it costs far more than standard fuel. The usage of crops and land have been deemed unsustainable by some environmentalists, while others point out the fuel continues to generate greenhouse gas emissions during combustion.
Nevertheless, executives see SAF as the main measure of reducing carbon emissions. “The only way to decarbonise aviation really is SAF,” Scott Kirby, chief executive of United Airlines, told analysts last week. He added: “Really getting a sustainable and viable SAF industry is how you ultimately get to 100 per cent, which is our goal.”
