Analysts warn that the far-right National Rally’s success may challenge relations between Paris and Berlin and complicate Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s agenda.
While the French election is underway, the results could have a significant impact on Germany. Analysts have suggested that Berlin’s influence over the EU will shrink following Marine Le Pen’s National Rally’s first-place finish in the first round of France’s parliamentary election.
Cornelia Woll, president of Berlin’s Hertie School, said if the National Rally secured a majority in parliament, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s job would get tougher.
She told Euronews that “the Franco-German relationship relies on close contacts at various ministerial levels.” A National Rally majority would alter these dynamics because of their “explicitly anti-German stance,” so there will be a lot of work to be done to “normalise relations between France and Germany.”
Germany regards France as its most important and closest partner in Europe. Chancellor Scholz recently expressed concern about the election, stating his preference for “any party without Le Pen,” but acknowledging that the decision rests with the French people.
German media is focusing on the risks and losses for French President Emmanuel Macron. A leading member of Scholz’s party said Germany might have to prepare for Le Pen as president.
Matthias Diermeier, a political economist at the German Economic Institute, suggested that Germany would struggle to undertake significant EU projects if the National Rally succeeds. He told Euronews that German politicians are “really afraid of a Eurosceptic government in France,” especially Jordan Bardella’s questioning of the European Energy Union and fiscal conservatism under the Growth and Stability Pact.
Woll also said that if the National Rally gets a majority, France might turn away from Germany and towards Italy, “where it’s easier to build bridges”. She doubted that the historically challenging Franco-German working relationship would be enough to bridge the partisan political gap.
