The Yahoo! consensus player rankings are excellent. I’m not just saying that; I would feel comfortable recommending anyone use the lists provided as a guide for their draft. But when I created my projections for the 2024 season — which is an exercise I have completed for more than 25 years — there were a few players who stood out to me as undervalued in comparison to the team’s consensus rankings. Here are the players who I would target if drafting against the Yahoo! rankings.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Yahoo Consensus: QB10 Fred: QB5
I’ll let the numbers do the talking. Working backward from 2023, here are Prescott’s passing yardage totals, extrapolated to 17 games, from the past five seasons: 4,516, 4,052, 4,727, 6,310, 4,902. And here are his passing touchdown totals, extrapolated to 17 games, over the past five seasons: 36, 33, 37, 31, 32. With their current RB room, the Cowboys have no option but to remain a pass-heavy team, and as we can see from the past five years of data, reasonable expectations for Prescott are 4,500 yards and 33 TDs.
Do you know how many players reached both of those benchmarks last season? One — Dak.
He guided the Cowboys to an NFL-leading 509 points last year, and with all due respect to Tony Pollard, Prescott hasn’t lost his key weapons (assuming that CeeDee Lamb soon signs a long-term contract). Prescott is a great combination of a high floor and a high ceiling.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo Consensus: RB26 Fred: RB18
Warren is an effective rusher (career 5.1 yards per carry), who is also an essential part of the Steelers’ passing attack. Although Najee Harris should lead the team in carries, Warren can match last year’s total of 149 in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense. And he can match his 2023 total of 61 catches in an offense that currently has only George Pickens (more on him later) as a dominant target.
Equalling his 2023 production feels like Warren’s floor, and there is a chance that he can push ahead of Harris, who has averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his three-year career and is not under contract for 2025.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Yahoo Consensus: RB28 Fred: RB23
My enthusiasm for Spears works off the simple principle that he is significantly younger and better than Tony Pollard. Spears looked dynamic in his rookie year when he averaged 4.5 yards per carry behind a poor offensive line while also tallying 52 catches. Meanwhile, Pollard disappointed the Cowboys to such a great degree that they pivoted to what’s left of Ezekiel Elliott.
At worst, Spears should split carries while picking up plenty of passing down work in an offense that is expected to shift to an aerial focus after losing Derrick Henry. There is a good chance that Spears has left Pollard in the dust by midseason.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Yahoo Consensus: WR19 Fred: WR12
Waddle felt like a disappointment last year, but by adding his average yards per game (72.4) to his total for the three games he missed, his final yardage jumps from 1,014 to 1,231. He has averaged 72 yards per game over his initial three seasons, and he should match that total as the secondary option for offensive maestro Mike McDaniel in an offense that doesn’t have a notable third wide receiver or dominant force at tight end.
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And Waddle offers a contingent upside of instantly becoming a top-five WR during any weeks that Tyreek Hill misses due to injury.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo Consensus: WR26 Fred: WR17
Along with Spears, Pickens will likely be my most drafted player this year. The third-year pro has already flashed elite playmaking skills that were sometimes held in check by a miserable QB situation. Pickens managed to amass 1,140 yards last season despite sharing targets with Diontae Johnson and dealing with the three-headed QB monster that was Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky.
Things are looking up this year, as both Pittsburgh QBs, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, have shown that they can propel their top target to lofty numbers. I expect Pickens to catch at least 20 more balls than his last season’s total of 63, which will lead to 1,200 yards and a handful of scores.
Of course, this will need reevaluation if the Steelers end up trading for Brandon Aiyuk.
Tight End
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Yahoo Consensus: TE2 Fred: TE1
Tight end is the position where my projections have the closest alignment to the Yahoo! consensus rankings. But there is a disagreement at the very top, where I have Kelce firmly ahead of Lions youngster, Sam LaPorta.
After tallying at least 1,125 yards for five straight seasons, Kelce fell to 984 yards last season. A passing glance would indicate that this is a sign of a declining veteran until we notice that the future Hall of Famer missed two games. Add in those two contests and Kelce would have finished 2023 with a projected 1,115 yards, which looks similar to his previous body of work. And with the widespread expectation that the Chiefs will score much more often this year, Kelce should blow past last year’s total of five TDs (he averaged 11 in the previous three campaigns).
This ranking is no knock on LaPorta, but the youngster is unlikely to match Kelce’s yardage total and could experience some regression on his rookie year TD total of 10.
