As much as we’d like to be perfectly accurate with our fantasy football preseason predictions, certain things are out of our control. Thankfully, a lot of our questions will be answered this week, as Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here.
In this article, I’ll be highlighting a few teams that I am keeping an eye on in Week 1 to get a better sense of how the carries will be distributed in their backfields.
Last year, the Rams backfield was a big Week 1 story after Kyren Williams supplanted Cam Akers as the starting running back and went on to become a league-winner in fantasy. The hope is that this year, the same doesn’t happen to Williams. With recent news that the Rams are planning on using Williams as their punt returner this year, it looks like the Rams might not want to give Williams a full bell-cow workload this year.
Enter Blake Corum, the Rams’ third-round draft pick, who had one of the most successful college football running back careers in recent memory at Michigan. If Corum sees a significant portion of the Rams backfield touches to start the year, it could spell disaster for fantasy managers who took Williams as early as the second round of their drafts.
That said, I’m generally optimistic that Williams will continue to be the team’s clear No. 1 running back. Unlike Akers, Williams was incredibly effective with the ball in his hands last year, running for five yards per carry and finishing third in PFF rushing grade. It is still worth keeping tabs on the situation, but I think the fantasy community as a whole is overreacting a little bit to the punt-returning news.
I would expect Williams to see a small drop-off in carries as Corum wasn’t taken in the third round to ride the bench, but nothing that hurts Williams’ value too severely.
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The lack of clarity surrounding the Dolphins’ backfield has made De’Von Achane one of the most polarizing players in fantasy. On one hand, it is natural to assume that he takes over the starting role in Miami after a historically efficient rookie year. On the other hand, Mostert is still listed as a starter on the Dolphins’ depth chart and was the overall RB2 in fantasy football last year.
Considering Achane and Mostert have both had their fair share of injuries, rookie running back Jaylen Wright could also be relevant as a potential high-upside backup. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel recently said that he plans on getting all three running backs involved during the season and potentially riding with the hot hand week to week. Based on this info, I would definitely consider picking up Wright before the season, as McDaniels’ words indicate he could be used a lot more than we expect.
I will be closely watching the Dolphins in their Week 1 matchup against the Jaguars to see how Achane, Mostert and Wright are rotated.
The Bengals haven’t said much at all about how they will be splitting carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Moss signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Bengals in the offseason after a productive season with the Colts. He put up a career-high 986 scrimmage yards and arguably outplayed Jonathan Taylor. Brown, meanwhile, will presumably step into a bigger role after a quiet rookie year.
I would guess that the Bengals split time about equally between Moss and Brown, with Moss as the two-down back and Brown used as a pass-catcher and in two-minute drills. Neither one of them would have a whole lot of value in that scenario, but there is always upside attached to great offenses. If either one of Moss or Brown clearly outplays the other during the first few weeks of the year, they would become fantasy gold — Joe Mixon has been a top-12 fantasy running back for three straight years, so there definitely is potential value to be extracted from the Bengals offense this year.
Will Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continue to be in an almost even timeshare? That is the primary question regarding the Lions’ backfield this year.
The two were obviously able to coexist last season, with Gibbs finishing as the RB10 and Montgomery the RB13. However, this offseason, Gibbs has vaulted up draft boards and is typically the fourth or fifth running back off the board, meaning fantasy managers likely want a little more out of him in his second year. Gibbs only saw more than 15 carries in a game last year two times, both of which were games where Montgomery was hurt. Montgomery was also the Lions’ preferred back in the red zone last year, with 50 carries within the 20-yard line compared to Gibbs’ 37.
In Week 1, I will be monitoring If the Lions continue to rotate Gibbs and Montgomery each offensive series, and also look out for who gets the goal-line work. Gibbs is obviously talented enough as a runner to produce even on a smaller workload, but Montgomery would jump out as a huge value if his usage stays similar to what it was last year.
The Cowboys have had a running back run for at least 1,000 yards in eight of the last 10 seasons. That number becomes 10 out of 10 if we drop the bounds to 975 yards. So, it feels a little weird to not have any highly drafted Cowboys running back this year, with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle both being taken outside the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts.
I could imagine the Cowboys alternating series with Elliott and Dowdle similar to Montgomery and Gibbs last year, but I’m curious to see who gets the goal-line work. Elliott’s play style is likely more suited for short-yardage running, but his best days are clearly behind him and he is coming off two straight years rushing for less than four yards a carry. And, for what it’s worth, reports have surfaced this week about Dowdle being used as the Cowboys’ RB1.
Despite their playoff woes, the Cowboys offense is likely still a top-10 unit with Dak Prescott under center, so the winner of the red-zone running back battle will hold fantasy value as a plug-and-play FLEX option with room for more.
