Five Oscar races (other than best picture) that feel up for grabs

The Oscar race for best picture has been a roller coaster ride all season and, even with “Anora” winning the top prize from both the producers and directors guilds, there still might be a moment of suspense when that final envelope is opened at the March 2 ceremony. It has been that kind of year.

But best picture isn’t the only category that feels a bit up for grabs. After a 2024 show in which most of the winners seemed like foregone conclusions — “Oppenheimer” and its men, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers” — we have a number of races that feel like they could go one way or another.

So let’s put aside the best picture drama for now and focus on where we are in five other categories that could end up surprising us at this year’s Academy Awards.

Lead actor: Timothée Chalamet or Adrien Brody?

Adrien Brody already has one Oscar. Might that stop him from earning a second?

(A24)

Chalamet won’t turn 30 until the end of the year. If he won for “A Complete Unknown,” he’d be the youngest to take the lead actor trophy. Who currently holds that distinction? None other than Brody, who won for “The Pianist” in 2003, 22 days before his 30th birthday.

“The Brutalist” earned 10 nominations, while “A Complete Unknown” scored eight. Popularity is not a problem for either of these movies. Chalamet has the biopic bias on his side (no, Brody’s László Tóth is not a real architect, though I hear he crossed paths with Lydia Tár in a past life), did all his own singing and expressed an earnest appreciation for the work of Bob Dylan, and the legend has returned the favor. And, as mentioned, Brody already has his Oscar. And not everyone was happy with the way he accepted it. (To quote Halle Berry: “I was like, ‘What the f— is happening?’”)

But … Chalamet still feels a little like Leonardo DiCaprio in the 2000s, when he was king of the world, pulling in nominations for such films as “The Aviator,” “Blood Diamond” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” but coming up short before finally winning for “The Revenant.” The academy tends to make actors pay their dues, and we still might be a bit early in that phase of Chalamet’s career.

Lead actress: Demi Moore or Fernanda Torres?

Demi Moore could take the Oscar for a film many thought was too graphic.

(Christine Tamalet/Working Title Films)

Fernanda Torres is a longshot, but could win the Oscar.

(Adrian Teijido/Sony Pictures Classics)

Back when we were talking about the ridiculous number of women deserving a lead actress nomination this year, many people figured it’d be tough for either Moore or Torres to make the final five. And now here we are, with Torres nominated and Moore favored to win for her raw, vulnerable turn in “The Substance” and as a way of honoring her career, perseverance and staying power.

Moore’s narrative came into focus the night she won the Golden Globe when she recognized the moment and gave a speech — one that she had memorized — that was both gracious and inspiring. She wrapped it up, beaming, “I do belong.”

“Good luck to the next person,” presenter Kerry Washington said immediately afterward.

Suddenly, all the doubts about “The Substance” being too outré for Oscar voters went up in smoke. And if you needed further proof, the academy gave Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror film a total of five nominations, including best picture, director, original screenplay and makeup and hairstyling.

But “The Substance” wasn’t the only movie that performed beyond expectations on nominations morning. “I’m Still Here,” starring Torres as a defiant woman holding her family together after a repressive regime takes her husband away, earned nominations for its lead as well as best picture and international feature. And since then, viewership for the late-arriving film has soared, continuing the momentum that began when Torres won at the Golden Globes. (Moore won for comedy; Torres, drama.)

Torres also has passionate support from the academy’s international voters, a bloc that has become increasingly important the past few years, along with a frenzied online backing from fans in her home country, Brazil. Torres did miss a few key precursors, including BAFTA and SAG. Plus, only two women have won this Oscar for a non-English-language turn — Sophia Loren (“Two Women”) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”). So while Torres has a chance, she remains a long shot. And who knows? If “Anora” sweeps, Mikey Madison could join the fun.

Original screenplay: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “The Substance” or “A Real Pain”?

“Anora,” starring Mikey Madison and Mark Eydelshteyn, isn’t the only deserving unorthodox indie movie script.

(NEON)

Sean Baker earned Oscar nominations for writing, directing, producing and editing “Anora.” After winning the DGA, he’s now the clear pick for director. And with the PGA win, “Anora” is the favorite for best picture. Could he win a third Oscar for the screenplay? Or a fourth for film editing and, in the process, tie Walt Disney’s record for most Oscars won in a single year? In this topsy-turvy awards season, nothing feels impossible.

Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain,” with its deft balance of humor and melodrama, was an early favorite to win here, but missing a best picture nomination has made that proposition iffy. Still, it is a dialogue-heavy film with lots of terrific verbal sparring between Eisenberg and co-star Kieran Culkin, so I wouldn’t dismiss its chances entirely.

And if voters are doubling down on originality, both the bonkers horror of “The Substance” and the epic ambitions of “The Brutalist” offer options. Not better than “Anora,” but the vote for unorthodox indie movies figures to be splintered.

Animated feature: “The Wild Robot” or “Flow”?

“The Wild Robot” scored big at the Annie Awards for animation.

(DreamWorks)

Will the academy’s international voters give Latvia’s “Flow” a boost?

(Festival de Cannes)

“The Wild Robot” earned rapturous reviews when it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last year and did well enough at the box office, earning more than $300 million worldwide. In addition to animated feature, it also picked up nominations for sound and original score. And it just dominated the Annie Awards, winning nine prizes, including best feature.

But “Flow,” co-written and directed by Latvian filmmaker Gints Zilbalodis, can’t be completely dismissed. It scored multiple nods too, landing in international feature as well as animated. So, again, we’re circling back to the academy’s international membership, a group likely to get behind Zilbalodis’ moving, wordless film. Maybe academy’s cat-loving demographic can engineer an upset?

International feature: “Emilia Pérez” or “I’m Still Here”?

Will backlash to “Emilia Pérez,” starring Zoe Saldaña, tank the film’s chances?

( WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS, PATHÉ FILMS, FRANCE 2 CINÉMA)

“I’m Still Here” tackles current political issues in its indictment of authoritarianism.

(Alile Onawale/Sony Pictures Classics)

In the wake of the latest drama surrounding “Emilia Pérez” lead Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media posts and rogue media appearances, some have wondered if Oscar voters will shun the film, resulting in zero wins from its leading 13 nominations. That seems a little extreme. It’s likely “Emilia Pérez” will still win the categories it was likely to take before the backlash, including international feature. But if voters are looking for an alternative, they have one in “I’m Still Here,” which, like “Emilia Pérez,” was nominated for best picture. And, as a bonus for academy members who like to make a statement with their ballots, “I’m Still Here” is also a potent indictment of authoritarianism, something that’s on many people’s minds these days.