Nominating a prime minister will not be enough to resolve the current political crisis. Macron’s pick will then have to survive a no-confidence vote in parliament.
Two months after the second round of the snap parliamentary elections, French President Emmanuel Macron still hasn’t named the country’s future prime minister.
The National Assembly is currently divided into three near-equal blocs: the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), Macron’s centrist group and the far-right National Rally.
All sides have made one thing clear: none of them want to form a coalition with any of the other parties.
But none of these three blocs can reach the absolute majority of 289 seats without the support of at least part of another camp.
“Macron is in a dilemma and can’t find someone to rally enough votes to carry the National Assembly, unifying the centre. That’s why he is going through a number of different candidates,” Hall Gardner, Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the American University of Paris, told Euronews.
But nominating a prime minister is one of the first hurdles in the perilous process. The future head of the government will then have to survive a no-confidence vote from the 577 MPs.
“Emmanuel Macron has put himself in a position of responsibility, as he has said he will find a prime minister who will survive a no-confidence vote. If his prime minister is overthrown, it would be a failure directly attributable to him,” said Emmanuel Rivière, a political scientist and polling expert.
“The best thing Macron could have done would have been to tell the different blocs to figure it out between themselves.”
“What’s striking is that these are bilateral discussions that the president is having. In any other European democracy, that’s not how it works. The discussions would have taken place between political groups. It would have made a big difference. But today, I think it’s a bit late to try this option for Macron,” said Rivière.
Who are the different candidates so far?
Multiple names have been circulating these past few days, including Bernard Cazeneuve, the former Socialist PM under President François Hollande. However, Cazeneuve said he would like to repeal Macron’s controversial pension reform, a red line for the presidential camp.
Conservative right-wing politician Xavier Bertrand is also in the running. However, the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, has already announced her party will vote against him and would topple a Bertrand-led government.
Another option: Thierry Beaudet, a little-known civil servant and president of the French Economic, Social and Environmental Council.
“He looks good on paper as a technocrat but he doesn’t have the political expertise to manage such a divided parliament,” Prof Gardner said.
Since Wednesday, conservative Michel Barnier has risen as the latest contender. Barnier was twice the European Commissioner and, between 2016 and 2021, the chief EU negotiator for Brexit.
How much longer can Macron wait?
Back in 2017, Macron described himself as someone who is ultimately in charge of the entire fourth dimension of time during an interview with France 2 TV channel.
ADVERTISEMENT“I will remain the master of clocks, you (the media) will have to get used to it, I’ve always done it that way,” he told journalists.
Today, it looks like the clockmaster is letting time slip away. Although the head of state is constitutionally allowed to take his time in nominating a PM, two crucial deadlines are approaching.
France must submit its proposals to slash public spending to the EU by 20 September, though that deadline can be extended until October.
To comply with EU rules, France would need to make cuts of at least €30 billion in 2025.
ADVERTISEMENTBack in June, the European Commission formally warned France over its excessive budget deficits.
And on top of that, the country’s 2025 budget plan must be presented to the National Assembly on 1 October.
