What we have all suspected, New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen said out loud. Not just about his own quarterback, but all highly compensated quarterbacks across today’s NFL.
This is the gift that a surprisingly interesting offseason version of “Hard Knocks” has given us. Specifically, a window into how money and pressure shape roster decisions around a quarterback. All focused through a microscope that is fixed on Giants veteran Daniel Jones, who is one of a handful of starting quarterbacks entering potentially career-altering seasons in 2024. From Dak Prescott with the Dallas Cowboys to Aaron Rodgers with the New York Jets — and a handful of others throughout the league — this season presents a make-or-break moment for some big-ticket veterans who could be headed out of their respective franchises next year. None with a more public autopsy than Jones, who has represented the central figure of intrigue in the Gaints’ appearance in the offseason version of “Hard Knocks.”
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That’s largely due to Schoen, who has made several candid remarks about Jones behind the scenes — but also in front of HBO’s cameras — then actually allowed them to be aired. The results have been an affirmation of what we’ve believed for months. The Giants were very interested in drafting North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. They did sacrifice running back Saquon Barkley through a financial balancing that was clearly tied to Jones. And they do see 2024 as a referendum on the future of their quarterback position.
As Schoen put it bluntly in a scene filmed in his office: “This is the year for Daniel. Plan all along was give him a couple years. Is he our guy for the next 10 years or do we need to pivot and, you know, find somebody else?”
For Jones, it really couldn’t have been laid out more clearly than that moment. This is it for him with the Giants. It’s his time to produce, his time to carry the offense, his team and job to lose. A point that Schoen underscored when expounding on the decision to let Barkley leave in free agency.
“You’re paying the guy $40 million,” Schoen said of Jones. “It’s not to hand the ball off to a $12 million (running) back.”
Those are words that should be echoing in the ears of every fan base in the NFL, since it accurately describes the mindset of most general managers who are fielding quarterbacks making $40 million or more per season. When teams are pumping that much cash into one position — and a whopping 14 teams are currently paying their quarterbacks at least $40 million — two things crystallize inside the general manager’s office. First, every position on offense becomes some kind of quarterback conversation, with the unyielding undercurrent always being a measurement of whether it helps or hurts the most important position on the field. And second, there’s continual pressure to justify the quarterback’s paycheck, which leads to an annual offseason measurement and considerations of change.
That’s where the Giants are with Jones. They drafted him a No. 1 wideout. They let the previous focal point of the scheme, Barkley, leave in free agency. And they didn’t bring in any realistic threat to his job security. Now it’s entirely on his shoulders to justify his future in a Giants uniform. All of which makes him one of the most intriguing quarterback storylines heading into training camp. Either he gets it done in 2024, or he’s gone in 2025.
But he’s also not alone. In a league where quarterback shakeups have become the offseason norm, there are some headlining veteran names that are walking a similarly precarious path entering camp. With that in mind, here are six other veterans who are potentially entering their last camp with their current teams.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is entering the final year of a four-year, $160-million contract and will be showing up to training camp regardless of his extension situation. As of the end of June, Prescott and the Cowboys weren’t any closer to getting a new deal done, with the team’s focus being on getting a deal done with wideout CeeDee Lamb. Unlike Prescott’s expected camp arrival, Lamb’s plans are far less certain. His potential holdout will make him a priority.
As for Prescott, the date to circle on the calendar is August 21. That’s the team’s final practice in Oxnard, Calif. before returning back to Dallas for the remainder of preseason work. If a deal isn’t done by then, it’s exponentially more likely that Prescott heads into the season without an extension and then tests the free agent market next March. And if he goes to free agency, two things are virtual certainties: Prescott will become the highest-paid player in the NFL in his next deal, and he won’t be playing for Dallas in 2025.
While that’s an ominous outlook right now, there’s still five weeks to get something done. The most significant update in the next few weeks will come from owner Jerry Jones on July 24, when he does his annual camp-opening press conference. One way or another, fans should have a solid idea of Prescott’s future coming out of that event.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
It’s an all-in season for the entire Jets organization in 2024, including Aaron Rodgers. If the team falters and misses the playoffs, the expected outcome is that head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas will both be fired, and Rodgers will be jettisoned by the next regime.
Of course, Rodgers’ performance in 2024 could impact that — especially if he posts a strong season coming back from his Achilles injury and somehow isn’t culpable for any Jets failures. But heading into training camp, it’s hard to imagine Rodgers playing well in 2024 and the Jets somehow being a bad team in spite of his play. If he’s at or near his previous MVP form, the Jets should be humming on offense and competitive in the playoff race. If he’s not, there will likely be no shortage of white-knuckling in the organization. Either way, Rodgers turns 41 in December and he’s just as likely to reject a new regime in New York as a new regime is likely to reject him.
The bottom line when it comes to Rodgers being the Jets starter in 2025 is fairly simple: If the Jets are a playoff team, the big three of Rodgers, Saleh and Douglas will be back. If the Jets aren’t a playoff team, it’s likely none of them will be.
One of these guys — and possibly both — won’t be in Pittsburgh in 2025. Neither has a contract beyond the 2024 season, which will basically be a test run to see if either is a viable option moving forward. The most notable extension of the offseason was that of head coach Mike Tomlin, who inked a deal through the end of the 2027 season. More than anyone else in the organization, that puts Tomlin at the forefront of the quarterback decision. And it’s notable that his contract horizon is now far enough into the future that he can endure a total reboot at quarterback after the 2024 season if that’s what is necessary.
What’s clear right now is that Tomlin wants Russell Wilson to take unquestioned command over the starting job in camp, which would give the Steelers their best shot at being competitive this season. That doesn’t mean that Justin Fields will be relegated to full-time clipboard duty, though. The plan is to have offensive wrinkles that get him on the field situationally. But if Fields starts any games in 2024, it means something went wrong with Wilson, either via injury or catastrophic performance.
What’s clear is that this quarterback pecking order is set going into camp and it’s Wilson’s job to lose. If he loses it, the likelihood in Pittsburgh is that the team is squarely in the quarterback market (and possibly the Dak Prescott market) next offseason. And they will have the cap space to be aggressive, too — possibly more than $90 million of it to attack the problem.
This one will be interesting, if only for the fact that Derek Carr’s reworked contract should keep him in New Orleans for one more season, thanks to a $51.4 million cap hit if he’s bounced next offseason. The motivation for him to restructure his deal this prior offseason was easy to understand, as it appeared to give him more solid footing in both 2024 and 2025. Saints ownership also doesn’t seem to wielding a hammer these days when it comes to the results, which bodes well for Carr sticking around through 2025.
But the rub here is that head coach Dennis Allen’s contract expires after the 2025 season and there’s potential for regime change if the Saints inexplicably bottom out this season (which really shouldn’t happen in a still-soft NFC South). If that happens and Carr is part of the problem, he’s a prime candidate to be designated as a post-June 1 cap release as the Saints burn the top quarter of the roster to the ground and move toward a total rebuild. Carr really only needs to have some modest success and replicate his 2023 season to stick around, which should be doable. Especially if he’s willing to restructure his deal again next offseason. But nothing is guaranteed, and with the salary cap pinch facing the Saints suggests the team is closer to being completely gutted in 2025 than restructuring a litany of deals to extend middling results.
Like Carr, Geno Smith restructured his contract this offseason to help create some additional salary cap breathing room for his franchise. And also like Carr, that restructure raised Smith’s cap hit in 2025. Of course, with Smith slated to get a $10 million roster bonus in the first week of the 2025 league year, Seattle will be making a quick decision on his future after the 2024 season and we should have a good idea of which way the winds are blowing.
Like Carr, Smith is entering his mid-30s and the horizon looks more like a sunset than a sunrise. Unlike Carr, Smith is already auditioning for a new head coach, with Mike Macdonald replacing Pete Carroll this offseason. General manager John Schneider is now fully empowered to do what he wants with this roster, and the reality is he’s working with the fourth-best quarterback in the NFC West and some salary cap juggling to boot. Smith could rework his deal next offseason and stick around through the last year of his contract, but the only way that happens is if he has an exceptional season in 2024.
