Global youth unemployment rates fell to 13% in 2023, a 15-year low. But a new study by the International Labor Organization warns the post-COVID economic recovery is uneven, with some regions seeing an increase in the number of out-of-work young people.
The ILO has issued its Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024 report to coincide with International Youth Day on August 12, to raise awareness of the needs, hopes, and aspirations of young people.
The current report reflects these issues and analyzes current and future prospects.
The report predicts that the four-year-long improved global labor market for young people will continue its upward trend for two more years, with unemployment rates expected to fall further to 12.8% this year and next.
This bright outlook, however, is not universal. The report notes that several regions are falling behind and not getting the benefits of the economic recovery.
“In three regions, mainly in the Arab States, Southeast Asia and the Pacific, youth unemployment rates were higher in 2023 than in 2019 in pre-COVID-19 days,” Gilbert Houngbo, ILO director-general, told journalists in Geneva last week at a briefing ahead of the report’s publication.
“At the same time, the recovery has not been the same for young men and young women,” he said. “Some of you may recall, before the pandemic, that young men globally experienced higher unemployment rates than young women. But by 2023, unemployment rates for young women and young men almost converged — 20.9% for young women versus 13.1% for young men.
“This highlights the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on young women’s employment opportunities and ensures that some young women will have been left behind in the recovery process,” he said.
Flagging another issue of concern, authors of the report point out that only six percent of the world’s youth population were unemployed in 2023, but a much larger share — 20.4% — was not in employment (individuals without a job and not seeking one), education or training. This is referred to as NEET in ILO parlance.
The report finds that one in five young people between the ages of 15 and 24 was NEET in 2023 and two in three were female.
The report underscores the persistent challenges facing young people in gaining decent jobs in developing countries. It highlights the glaring equality gap between rich and poor countries where “the inequalities of opportunity have gotten worse.”
“Today, only one in four young workers in the low-income countries has a regular secure job compared to three-quarters of young workers in high income countries,” ILO chief Houngbo said. “However, two-thirds of young adults in low- and middle-income countries face education jobless matches because their qualifications do not necessarily align well with their qualifications and requirements.”
ILO data reveals that youth unemployment rates have reached “historic lows” in North America, in areas of western Europe, and have come down substantially in Latin America in recent years. The data, however, show that youth unemployment rates remain critically high in the Arab states and North Africa.
“In both subregions, more than one in three economically active youth were unemployed in 2023. Fewer than one in 10 women and fewer than one in three young men in the two subregions are working,” authors of the report say.
The situation in sub-Saharan Africa is quite different where, according to the report, youth unemployment rates stand at 8.9%, “which are among the lowest in the world.”
Sara Elder, head of ILO’s employment analyses and economic policies unit, explains, “The issue here is that young people in certain contexts do not have the luxury of being unemployed. They have to take up a job. They have to earn some income.
“Often it is poverty driven and this is very much what we see in young people in sub-Saharan Africa,” she said, adding that the region “has a very distinct problem of decent work deficits.”
“It is a region where three in four young people do not have access to what we deem to be a more secure form of employment and also a region where one in three persons is working in a low paid job,” she said.
Her colleague, Mia Seppo, ILO assistant director-general for jobs and social protection, points out that most young people, around 60%, eke out a living in the agricultural sector, “and a lot of that is in employment that is informal and insecure. And, that is not necessarily reflective of young people’s aspirations.”
“So, there actually lies the potential in terms of agri-food supply chains and in developing the agricultural sector in terms of new jobs and trying to make agriculture something that is attractive and provides more decent jobs for young people,” she said.
Authors of the report say demographic trends, notably, the so-called African “youthquake,” means that creating enough decent jobs, “will be critical for social justice and the global economy.”
The report calls for increased and more effective investment in boosting job creation, especially for young women. It says governments must strengthen labor market policies that target employment for disadvantaged youth, make sure that young people receive equal treatment and social protection at work, and “tackle global inequalities through improved international cooperation.”
