In the aftermath of wildfires that devastated much of Southern California this month, the Recording Academy says it has reoriented Sunday’s 67th Grammy Awards around fundraising efforts and a mission to celebrate “the spirit of the city of Los Angeles.”
But of course, there are still awards to hand out: Beyoncé leads the field with 11 nominations, followed by Charli XCX and Post Malone with eight apiece and Billie Eilish and Kendrick Lamar, each of whom has seven. The telecast, set to air live on CBS from Crypto.com Arena, will be hosted by Trevor Noah and will feature performances by Eilish, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Charli XCX, Doechii, Shakira, Stevie Wonder, Brad Paisley, Sheryl Crow and Herbie Hancock, among others.
Here are my predictions for how the night will go down across 11 major categories — which I offer with the caveat that I’ve never seen a Grammys ceremony that didn’t leave me baffled in one way or another.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
André 3000, “New Blue Sun”
Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Charli XCX, “Brat”
Jacob Collier, “Djesse Vol. 4”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
Facing off for the Grammys’ flagship award for just the second time, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift loom over this category the way they loom over all of pop music. For Swift, a win would extend the record she set in 2024 as the first artist to take album of the year four times; she’d also become the first artist to win back to back since Stevie Wonder half a century ago. For Beyoncé, victory would finally reshape the vexing narrative that for all the Grammys she’s collected — she has the most of anyone in history with 32 — the most prestigious prize remains out of reach for reasons we could spend all day debating. (One bit of historical context to consider: Only three Black women have won album of the year in the Grammys’ six and a half decades.) By rooting “Cowboy Carter” in the kind of hand-played sounds the academy has long valorized, Beyoncé almost seems to be daring the organization to withhold the award for a fifth time. Whatever happens Sunday, the think pieces are coming.
Will win: Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Should win: Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
RECORD OF THE YEAR
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Charli XCX, “360”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
With recent wins by Miley Cyrus’ neo-disco “Flowers” and Silk Sonic’s retro-soul “Leave the Door Open,” record of the year can be thought of as a safe space for the expertly crafted throwback. This time the competition seems stiffest between Carpenter’s smash “Espresso,” which looks back to the glittering pop-funk of the early 1980s, and an actual relic: the Beatles’ “Now and Then,” for which Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr and producer Giles Martin employed AI technology to complete a scratchy demo John Lennon laid down not long before his death in 1980. Might Beatles fans’ unquenchable nostalgia — and the fact that none of the band’s classics ever won record of the year — be enough to win? As for “Not Like Us,” which truly was the record of 2024, the odds are against Lamar: Record of the year has gone to a rap song only once, when Childish Gambino took it with “This Is America” in 2019.
Will win: The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
SONG OF THE YEAR
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” written by Sean Cook, Jerrel Jones, Joe Kent, Chibueze Collins, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams (performed by Shaboozey)
“Birds of a Feather,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
“Die With a Smile,” written by Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt (performed by Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)
“Fortnight,” written by Jack Antonoff, Post Malone and Taylor Swift (performed by Taylor Swift)
“Good Luck, Babe!,” written by Daniel Nigro, Chappell Roan and Justin Tranter (performed by Chappell Roan)
“Not Like Us,” written by Kendrick Lamar (performed by Kendrick Lamar)
“Please Please Please,” written by Amy Allen, Sabrina Carpenter and Jack Antonoff (performed by Sabrina Carpenter)
“Texas Hold ’Em,” written by Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Atia Boggs, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq (performed by Beyoncé)
A songwriter widely acknowledged as the most important of her generation, Swift is nominated for an eighth time for an award she’s somehow never won. (Song of the year recognizes songwriters, while record of the year goes to performers and producers.) Yet “Fortnight” is nobody’s idea of Swift’s masterpiece, especially as compared with the melodic grace and dramatic ingenuity of Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!,” which has been covered by everyone from Miranda Lambert to the Jonas Brothers. A late surge by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” could keep things competitive.
Will win: “Good Luck, Babe!”
Should win: “Good Luck, Babe!”
BEST NEW ARTIST
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Khruangbin
Raye
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
Lot of hitmakers here: Three of the acts up for best new artist — Carpenter, Shaboozey and Teddy Swims — scored No. 1 singles last year on Billboard’s Hot 100, while Benson and Roan had songs that made it to the top 5. Yet many insiders agree that best new artist will go either to Carpenter or Roan, each of whom made old-fashioned live performance a crucial part of her story in 2024. You can argue that Roan’s somewhat tortured relationship with fame will work against her — but of course that’s never kept voters from showering Grammys on Eilish.
Will win: Chappell Roan
Should win: Chappell Roan
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
The last time an LP took this prize without also having been nominated for album of the year was 2019, when Ariana Grande did it with “Sweetener.” Perhaps she’ll repeat that trick? Alternatively, voters might use pop vocal album as a way to recognize Carpenter, whose deep belief in — and sly subversion of — the genre’s fundamentals has made her one of music’s biggest new stars.
Will win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Should win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
BEST RAP ALBUM
J. Cole, “Might Delete Later”
Common & Pete Rock, “The Auditorium, Vol. 1”
Doechii, “Alligator Bites Never Heal”
Eminem, “The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grâce)”
Future & Metro Boomin, “We Don’t Trust You”
Historically, rap album has been Eminem’s Grammy to lose, with six career wins on eight nominations (including this one). Yet Doechii seemed to be everywhere last month, drawing eyeballs with viral appearances on NPR’s Tiny Desk and “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” just as voters were filling out their final ballots. Then again, precisely two women — Lauryn Hill of the Fugees and Cardi B — have won rap album in the category’s three-decade history. (Lamar’s “GNX,” if you’re wondering, came out after this ceremony’s eligibility window had closed.)
Will win: Doechii, “Alligator Bites Never Heal”
Should win: Doechii, “Alligator Bites Never Heal”
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Post Malone, “F-1 Trillion”
Kacey Musgraves, “Deeper Well”
Chris Stapleton, “Higher”
Lainey Wilson, “Whirlwind”
Beyoncé wasn’t the only pop star to immerse herself in country music last year. Yet where she chose to work outside the Nashville industry, Post Malone sought out collaborations with the genre’s biggest stars and busiest creatives — a calculation that may well bring him their votes (at least if they don’t go for Stapleton, who’s taken this category three times).
Will win: Chris Stapleton, “Higher”
Should win: Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
BEST ROCK ALBUM
The Black Crowes, “Happiness Bastards”
Fontaines D.C., “Romance”
Green Day, “Saviors”
Idles, “Tangk”
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
The Rolling Stones, “Hackney Diamonds”
Jack White, “No Name”
Grammy voters go back and forth with this award: Sometimes they anoint headstrong youngsters as rock’s great new hope; other times they congratulate wizened oldsters for staying in the game. Given the number of veteran acts in the category this year, the latter scenario seems more likely; in that case, figure that it comes down to Green Day (which already has two rock album trophies) versus Pearl Jam (which has never won the category but which scored three Grammy nods this year). The ’90s, everybody!
Will win: Green Day, “Saviors”
Should win: Green Day, “Saviors”
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds, “Wild God”
Clairo, “Charm”
Kim Gordon, “The Collective”
Brittany Howard, “What Now”
St. Vincent, “All Born Screaming”
Many Grammy watchers expected a showdown here between St. Vincent and Vampire Weekend, both of whom have won alternative music album twice. The academy’s snub of VW’s well-reviewed “Only God Was Above Us” might mean that St. Vincent’s path is now clear — or that voters are determined to shake things up. The latter could benefit Kim Gordon, who was never even nominated during her decades with the hugely influential Sonic Youth, though “Charm” by Gordon’s fellow first-timer Clairo would be my pick.
Will win: St. Vincent, “All Born Screaming”
Should win: Clairo, “Charm”
PRODUCER OF THE YEAR
Alissia
Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II
Ian Fitchuk
Mustard
Daniel Nigro
Speaking of snubs: Despite his involvement with two LPs up for album of the year (“Short n’ Sweet” and “Tortured Poets”), Jack Antonoff was blanked for a producer nod after winning the prize three years in a row. With Antonoff out of the picture, I’d be shocked if academy members don’t give the Grammy to Nigro, who’s known for his close creative partnerships with Roan and Olivia Rodrigo.
Will win: Daniel Nigro
Should win: Daniel Nigro
SONGWRITER OF THE YEAR
Jessi Alexander
Amy Allen
Edgar Barrera
Jessie Jo Dillon
Raye
Barring a rush of support for Raye, Allen would seem to be a lock thanks to her role as Carpenter’s right-hand woman — Allen co-wrote every song on “Short n’ Sweet” — and to her part in “High Road,” a No. 1 country-radio hit by Koe Wetzel and Jessie Murph.
Will win: Amy Allen
Should win: Amy Allen
