WASHINGTON — The rapid replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the de facto Democratic nominee is reshaping the dynamics for both parties in key races set to decide control of Congress.
For Republicans, the calculus changes dramatically. Their candidates have embraced former President Donald Trump and were banking on tying Democrats to an aging and unpopular Biden in order to win competitive House and Senate races. Now they’re eyeing a way to pivot to Harris, and GOP operatives are already testing new lines of attack on her.
For Democrats, candidates in battleground races are still planning to localize their races as much as possible. But lawmakers and party operatives are now hoping they can benefit from the wave of enthusiasm provided by Harris’ campaign in down-ballot races.
Republican strategists said their priority is to craft and drive a negative portrait of Harris in the minds of voters, using some of the same issues they attacked Biden on, such as immigration, crime and inflation.
“What is going to be critical important for Republicans as a whole is to quickly define Kamala Harris,” said one GOP strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, adding that the party is already evaluating new messages in the field. “We have a very short runway to take the four or five most unpopular positions she has and brand her as a supporter of those.”
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., tested some of those lines on Tuesday.
“Crises owned by Kamala Harris: the border crisis, the inflation crisis, the crime crisis, everything happening with the economy, our national security, weakness on the world stage. She is an equal partner in all of that,” Johnson told reporters. “What has she done other than make a mess of everything? We love this, we love that Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.”
A memo Monday from the National Republican Senatorial Committee outlined a menu of potential attacks on Harris, concluding that candidates “should not be shy about aggressively tying their opponents to Kamala Harris’ extreme agenda.”
Meanwhile, Democratic strategists say their candidates will continue to run state-specific Senate campaigns and district-specific House campaigns. Many of those candidates had been overperforming Biden for months before he dropped out, and party operatives expect that to continue with Harris, whose favorability ratings are also under water in recent surveys.
They’re also continuing to run against what they’re portraying as Republican extremism and out-of-touch candidates after successfully using that approach in 2022.
“‘Despicable Me 4’ was a big hit this summer and the problem in the Republican Party is they’ve got a bucket full of minions running for the U.S. Senate,” said JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC, a deep-pocketed Democratic super-PAC. “Republican candidates are trapped well behind where Trump is.”
Poersch said Republicans have been unsuccessful at nationalizing the races — and Democratic hopes depend on keeping it that way, with red states like Montana and Ohio poised to decide the majority.
Democrats tout ‘palpable’ momentum
While it’s unclear how Harris will perform, Democrats have seen a jolt of new enthusiasm among voters that they believe will help drive up base turnout and keep key constituencies, like young Black voters and moderate Hispanic voters, in the fold.
“The momentum on the ground is palpable,” said Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Mich., who represents a swing district and had called for Biden to step aside. “But it’s a battleground state. And we have a lot of work to do from now until November, but it definitely feels like we’re on the right track.”
Asked whether Harris has a clearer path than Biden did, Scholten said: “Michigan has shown that the brand of extremism ushered in by the Trump administration is something they have rejected at the ballot box, not only at the presidential level but in down-ballot congressional seats. … I think Michigan’s ready to reject that again.”
Republicans see opportunities to make even greater gains with working-class voters, particularly in rural areas, with Harris at the top of the ticket.
“The Trump districts got a lot better for us. I don’t see the crossover appeal if you’re a Trump district blue-collar worker,” said the GOP strategist, referring to a handful of districts carried by Trump in 2020 that are held by House Democrats. “But if Kamala is an effective messenger on the issue of Roe v. Wade, and as the prosecutor on Trump’s felonies, maybe it could help her in the suburban districts among women.”
Rep. Angie Craig, of Minnesota, another vulnerable Democrat who pushed for Biden to leave the race, said a “tremendous amount of energy” has been injected into the Democratic Party since Biden’s announcement, particularly among young people.
“In a swing district like mine, you’re seeing a lot of people who just didn’t like their two choices. They understand that they have new choices now,” Craig said in an interview just off the House floor. “And I think that many of those swing voters are going to be willing to give the vice president a second look because this is not the same ticket it was 48 hours ago with her at the top.”
Rep. Kim Schrier, D-Wash., has endorsed Harris like the others but said she’s not changing how she’s running in her divided district.
“I’m planning on winning my race based on the way I serve my district,” said Schrier, who represents suburbs and rural areas west of Seattle. “And it is time to make sure that Trump does not get anywhere near the White House.”
Democrats warn of a Trump presidency
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee distributed a memo Tuesday highlighting the party’s financial advantages and internal polls showing their “Frontliners” (the party’s program for vulnerable congressional incumbents) in swing districts overperforming, faring well against rivals and launching paid ads.
The DCCC is also rolling out a new message: Trump could return to the White House, and control of the House may be the only chance to constrain his worst impulses.
“And a Republican Majority with a Trump presidency? Enter Project 2025, which would give Trump nearly unchecked powers if he were to win a second term, aided and abetted by House Republicans,” the DCCC memo said, before adding in bold font: “Given these threats, it’s more important than ever that we have a Democratic Majority in the House to push back against far-right attempts to undermine our democracy.”
Even before Biden dropped out, DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene, of Washington, argued that her party’s message of protecting democracy and reproductive rights were resonating with voters.
“Our front-liners and our candidates are all out there running their race — they always have been. They are talking to voters about issues important in their districts,” DelBene said, calling it “very different than what we’ve seen on the Republican side, where they dress up like Donald Trump and wait to decide what to do until they hear from him.”
On top of Harris’ team announcing it had raised a staggering $81 million in the first 24 hours of her candidacy, it was clear there was also a trickle-down effect for Democrats. The DCCC said it had raised nearly $1 million during the same 24-hour window, one of the best online fundraising days in the campaign committee’s history.
“The relief is palpable, and the change in enthusiasm is palpable,” Rep. Rick Larsen, another Washington state Democrat, said of Biden stepping down and the party quickly rallying behind Harris. “And the money is palpable. If the money is reflection of the enthusiasm, then the shift has come.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
