Israel’s war against Hezbollah and Hamas, while inflicting considerable damage, has yet to strike a crippling blow to either of the Iran-backed terror groups, according to a top U.S. counterterrorism official.
The acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) said Tuesday that the impact of Israeli intelligence operations, along with repeated military airstrikes and ground offensives in Lebanon and Gaza, have severely diminished the ability of both groups to launch new attacks on Israel.
But he cautioned that both groups remain resilient, and in the case of Hezbollah, retain significant capabilities.
“Before the conflict, they [Hezbollah] had built up unprecedented numbers of rockets and missiles and other munitions,” the NCTC’s Brett Holmgren told an audience in Washington, adding that the Lebanese group was starting at a “very strong point.”
And he said while Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah leadership, the group’s ground forces in southern Lebanon “remain somewhat intact.”
Additionally, Israel’s actions have done little to damage Hezbollah’s reach beyond the Middle East.
“Their external capabilities have largely been untouched,” Holmgren said, noting the U.S. and its allies are on alert for any indication Hezbollah may seek to retaliate outside the region.
Hamas’ staying power
Hamas, which touched off the war in Gaza when it launched its October 7, 2023, terror attack that killed about 1,200 mostly Israeli civilians, has also suffered greatly, according to the latest U.S. assessments.
“Militarily, they have been significantly diminished,” Holmgren said. “They’re essentially morphing into an insurgent force on the ground.”
Yet despite being forced to keep a low profile and resort to hit-and-run-type tactics, U.S. intelligence sees few indications Hamas has lost its appeal.
“Hamas has been able to recruit new members to its ranks and will likely continue its ability to do so, so long as there is not another viable political option on the ground for these disaffected young men in Gaza to turn to,” Holmgren said.
“There has to be a more viable political actor on the ground in Gaza to give these new recruits for Hamas, to give them a better option,” he added.
Hamas, Hezbollah numbers
Prior to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, U.S. intelligence estimated that the U.S.-designated terror group had between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters, though some estimates put the number at 30,000 or more, citing support from about a dozen other terror groups that had pledged to fight under the Hamas banner.
Hezbollah, according to U.S. estimates, had about 40,000 fighters with “state-like military capabilities.”
Holmgren on Tuesday did not elaborate on how many fighters from either group had been eliminated.
Israeli officials, however, have said their forces have killed upward of 14,000 Hamas fighters and more than 2,550 Hezbollah fighters.
The Israel Defense Forces earlier this month said it estimates that about 80% of Hezbollah’s arsenal of medium- and short-range rockets has been destroyed.
Health officials in Gaza have said the Israeli offensive there has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said more than 3,000 people have been killed during the conflict, though it does not differentiate between civilians and Hezbollah fighters.
Terror spreading
There are growing concerns, though, that the death tolls in Lebanon and Gaza are serving as a spark for other terror groups around the world.
Less than a month after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, U.S. counterterrorism officials warned that the event had begun to galvanize other terror groups, including Islamic State and al-Qaida.
Holmgren said it appears the Hamas attack, combined with growing political and economic turmoil, has in fact helped to reenergize other groups.
Islamic State
“ISIS exploited reduced counterterrorism pressure last year to recover and to rebuild as governments shifted attention and resources to the conflict in Gaza,” Holmgren said, using an acronym for the Islamic State terror group, also known as IS or Daesh.
Central Syria, he said, had become an epicenter for IS plotting against the U.S. and the West, at large.
And although a series of recent operations by the U.S. and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have again weakened IS, the group continues to benefit from improved finances and resurgent media campaigns, Holmgren said.
The IS affiliate in Afghanistan known as IS-Khorasan has likewise shown resilience.
State Department officials, in a recent inspector general’s report, admitted that serious questions remain about whether Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban “have the will and capability to fully eliminate terrorist safe havens or control the flow of foreign terrorist fighters in and through Afghanistan.”
And although key elements of IS-Khorasan have fled Afghanistan for Pakistan, there are fears the group may be poised for a resurgence.
“Sustained pressure will be needed to prevent the group from expanding further,” Holmgren said.
Africa
Holmgren further warned that groups affiliating themselves with IS and al-Qaida are also seeing their fortunes rise in Africa.
IS and al-Qaida attacks in West Africa and the Sahel alone are set to surpass more than 3,000 by the end of the year, he said, doubling the total number of attacks from 2021.
And it could get worse.
Holmgren said IS and al-Qaida affiliates have capitalized on turmoil in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic, where governments have turned to the Russian military and Russian paramilitary groups to boost security.
The situation in Africa, “if left unchecked, could become a much more acute long-term threat to U.S. interests,” he said.
Younger terrorists
U.S. counterterrorism analysts have also picked up on several other trends that they say bear watching.
One is a propensity for younger people to join terror movements.
“The rising number of juveniles engaging in terrorism is a global phenomenon, and it may well worsen in the near term as the effects of the Israel-Hamas conflict take hold,” Holmgren said.
Vulnerable young people the world over, he said, are turning to groups like IS for a sense of belonging and accomplishment.
“A lot of the propaganda — it’s easily accessible on the social media platforms” he said. “A lot of it [is in] English.”
Iran and Trump
There is also concern about how Iran will respond to Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas, and to the reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
U.S. intelligence officials warned in the run-up to last week’s election that Iran was engaged in a series of influence operations aimed at hurting Trump’s chance of returning to power.
And late last week, the U.S. shed light on another in a series of efforts by Tehran to assassinate the once and future president.
In the short term, Holmgren said, Iran could try to leverage its proxy forces in Iraq and Syria to launch additional attacks against U.S. interests and against Israel.
But he also expressed concern that Iran continues to play host to al-Qaida’s de facto leader, Saif al-Adel.
“I won’t speculate on what the Iranian intentions are, but suffice to say, it is unhelpful with his presence there,” Holmgren said Tuesday in response to a question from VOA.
Trump transition
Holmgren promised Tuesday to work with the incoming Trump administration to keep the U.S. and its allies safe.
“I look forward to engaging with the Trump administration’s national security team to conduct an orderly transition and to ensure that they are ready on Day One to address a dynamic threat environment,” Holmgren said.
“The U.S. counterterrorism community will be working diligently, as they do each and every day, to keep threats at bay so that our democracy may continue to shine as a beacon of freedom and hope in the world,” he added.
