UNPOPULAR REFORM BILL
The legislation grants the parliament power to summon the president to give regular reports and answer lawmakers’ questions. The measure also extends to companies and the general public.
Tens of thousands of citizens took to the streets to protest the law’s legitimacy.
The Bills were driven by the two main opposition parties – the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) and the smaller populist Taiwan People’s party (TPP).
“The overly aggressive move by the two opposition parties to pass the Bill has annoyed members of the public,” said Wang Chih-Sheng, secretary general of Taipei-based think tank Cross-Strait Policy Association.
“The people want to see checks and balances on the ruling party. But when it was done in a very crude way, it actually made them want to support or sympathise with Lai.”
CHINESE MILITARY THREATS
Across the strait, Lai has had to deal with the persistent military threat from China.
The 64-year-old has long been branded a “troublemaker” and a dangerous “separatist” by China.
His inauguration speech in May, in which he said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are “not subordinate to each other”, further angered Beijing, which viewed the message as an insinuation that the two sides are separate states.
He also rejected Beijing’s sovereignty claims and said that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
China has since stepped up military incursions around Taiwan in “punishment” drills with warplanes and staged mock attacks, further escalating tensions across the strait.
However, various surveys have shown that more than half of the Taiwanese public support Lai’s remarks.
Analysts said that is largely due to a majority of Taiwanese – particularly the youth – not being ready to accept a reunification with China currently.
“Lai would often repeat the statement that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other. I think it wins him the support of people younger than 40 to 45 years old,” said Wang.
He added that Lai is considered more of a firebrand with a clearer stance than his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, who kept a relatively vague position on cross-strait relations.
CROSS-STRAIT TIES
Analysts said Lai’s remarks have already underscored his bottom line as far as cross-strait relations are concerned.
Despite moving up the opinion polls, he is unlikely to take an even tougher stance as any further actions to stand up to Beijing depends on the development of relations between China and the United States.
“It doesn’t seem like the US would want to create more trouble. The US has been stepping on the brakes for Lai,” noted political science Professor Chu Chao-Hsiang from the National Taiwan Normal University.
“Even if his approval rating goes up by another 10 percentage points, I don’t think he would be able to take a tougher or more aggressive position towards China.”
Cross-strait tensions are unlikely to ease any time soon, observers said. Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China under equal footing, but has been rebuffed.
Analysts said that as long as Lai refuses to accept the “One China” principle, Beijing is unlikely to engage in talks or resume official exchanges with Taiwan.
With Beijing’s military drills in the water and airspace around Taiwan becoming more regular, Taiwan is set to increase its military spending to a record US$20 billion next year to beef up its defence capability.
The Lai administration targets to maintain Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 3 per cent, keep the jobless rate under 3.5 per cent and cap inflation at 2 per cent.
It also plans to attract US$3.29 trillion in investments in strategic industries, which would be selected and targeted by a cross-ministry task force.
