How economic concerns and low voter turnout in Democratic strongholds helped Trump win

• In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes.

• Each candidate sought to present themselves as the better steward of the economy.

• But President-elect Trump emerged victorious, sweeping the seven major battleground states.

Headed into Election Day, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appeared deadlocked, with polls showing a close race across the seven swing states.

But Trump came out on top, with the president-elect sweeping the battleground states and making critical gains among a broad slice of the electorate, from young voters and Latino men to suburban voters and rural voters.

The president-elect’s victory came as he retained his long-standing advantage on economic issues through Election Day.

Here’s a look at why the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and Trump was such a departure from this year’s contest between Harris and Trump.

Trump made significant inroads in the suburbs, where the economy was a key issue

In 2020, Biden emerged victorious in the suburbs, winning over voters in this key group 50% to 48%, according to CNN exit polling.

Harris was hoping that strong support from suburban voters, especially among college-educated women, would aid her, with her campaign banking that her prosecutorial background would match up well against that of Trump — who has been embroiled in an array of legal issues over his push to overturn the 2020 election results.

While Harris performed well in many of the suburbs that paved the way for Biden’s 2020 election, she simply did not win by the margins she needed to overcome Trump’s burst in support from white voters without college degrees, as well as the drop-off in support from Latino and Asian voters compared to the president’s performance.

This year, Trump won suburban voters 51% to 47%, per CNN exit polling, a four-point edge that allowed him to hold the line in areas where Democrats were hoping to run up the score. And the shift allowed him to flip Maricopa County, and thus, win back Arizona, which had been one of Biden’s most impressive victories in 2020.

Similar to other groups, the economy was critical for suburban voters, with inflation and housing costs being paramount. In Arizona, a state dominated by Phoenix and its vast Maricopa-anchored suburbs, the economy was the second-most important issue for voters, only trailing the issue of democracy.

According to CNN exit polling, 42% of the Arizona electorate said the economy was in “poor” condition, and 89% of those voters backed Trump, compared to 10% for Harris. By comparison, only 6% of respondents considered the economy to be “excellent,” and 99% of those voters supported Harris, with only 1% backing Trump.

Trump hammered home an economic message centered on lowering costs, forging ahead with new housing construction on federal land, and cutting government relations that he said hampered growth. In western states like Arizona and Nevada, where housing affordability has been a major issue, the issue took on added resonance. Harris had high-profile economic proposals of her own, including a $25,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, but it wasn’t enough to swing the race.

Turnout declined in key Democratic areas

After Biden exited the race in July and Harris stepped into her role as the Democratic Party’s standard bearer, she was faced with running a 107-day campaign. While Harris had been Biden’s No. 2 for over three years at that point, she was still unfamiliar to a considerable slice of the electorate.

Despite Biden’s decline in support with groups that had fueled his 2020 victory — which included Black, Latino, and young voters — he was a known commodity. And Harris, in many ways, had to reintroduce herself to millions of Americans who were open to backing her but had reservations about the Biden administration on issues like inflation and border security.

From Harris’ first major rally as a 2024 presidential candidate in Wisconsin to her Election eve turnout push in vote-rich Philadelphia, she crisscrossed the swing states, aiming to hold on to the blue wall battleground states while also eyeing gains in the Sun Belt.

But compared to 2020, turnout declined on the Democratic side.

Four years ago, the Biden-Harris ticket won over 81 million votes, compared to 74 million votes for Trump and then-Vice President Mike Pence. So far, Harris has earned just under 75 million votes, compared to a little over 77 million votes for Trump.

Democratic strength in New Jersey and New York fell sharply, with Harris faring worse than Biden in those solidly blue states.

Voters did boost their numbers in several key battlegrounds, though.

Georgia hit a turnout record of almost 5.3 million voters this year, and despite Harris losing the state by 2.2 points (50.7% to 48.5%), she earned more votes in the Peach State than Biden did when he won the state by 0.23 percent (49.47% to 49.24%) in 2020.

Harris won 2,548,017 votes in Georgia this year, compared to Biden’s 2,473,633 votes four years ago. But Trump won 2,663,117 votes this year, giving him a 115,100-vote advantage over Harris.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, more votes were tallied between the two major-party candidates this year compared to 2020, but this didn’t benefit Harris as Democratic strength declined in cities like Detroit and Philadelphia.

For example, Harris won Philadelphia, the most populous city in Pennsylvania, by a hefty 79% to 20% margin. But in 2020, Biden won Philadelphia 81% to 18%. And while Biden earned 604,175 votes in the city, Harris currently has 568,571 votes there, according to NBC News.

Turnout fell across Philadelphia this year, allowing Trump to post gains in what has long been known as one of the most Democratic cities in the country.

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